U.S. Monitors Iran’s Push for Nuclear Weapons as per Dr. Youssef’s Warning
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has raised concerns about Iran’s potential pursuit of nuclear weapons, citing recent regional setbacks that may be driving Tehran to reconsider its nuclear doctrine. These remarks echo predictions made over a month ago by Dr. Mohammed Walid Youssef, head of ICGER, in a study titled “Restoring Regional Balance in the Middle East: A Nuclear Test is Iran’s Last-Resort Maneuver.”.
Speaking to CNN on December 22, 2024, Sullivan expressed similar concerns, highlighting Iran’s diminished conventional military capabilities due to recent Israeli strikes on its missile production facilities and air defenses. “It’s not surprising that some voices within Iran are now suggesting a need to pursue nuclear weapons or rethink their nuclear doctrine,” Sullivan stated.
He warned of a “real risk” that Iran might abandon its longstanding stance of not pursuing nuclear weapons. Sullivan added, “It’s a risk we are trying to be vigilant about now. It’s a risk that I’m personally briefing the incoming team on.”[i]
In his study, published on November 18, 2024, Dr. Youssef argued that Iran, weakened by the faltering of its allies in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, might see nuclear armament as its only means of survival. He suggested that Iran might swiftly develop and test a nuclear weapon to declare itself a nuclear power and deter further aggression.
Dr. Youssef’s analysis had anticipated such developments, asserting that Iran, as the head of the Shiite axis in the Middle East, faces existential threats. He noted that the weakening of Iran’s key allies—Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon—combined with Israel’s readiness to target Iran directly, leaves Tehran with few options. According to Dr. Youssef, only acquiring and announcing a nuclear weapon could shield Iran from what he described as a “decapitation strike” aimed at dismantling the Shiite axis entirely.
He further referenced statements by Iranian officials, including Kamal Kharazi, former foreign minister and head of the Strategic Studies Center under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who suggested Iran could revise its nuclear doctrine if it faced an existential threat.
Drawing on his expertise as a nuclear physicist and ICGER’s analytical framework, Dr. Youssef predicted that Iran might conduct its first underground nuclear test in Kerman between January and April 2025. He outlined a scenario in which Israel intensifies ground and air attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon while Iran’s other allies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen fail to provide meaningful support. Concurrently, economic pressure from the incoming Trump administration could force Iran’s hand, leaving it no alternative but to announce its entry into the nuclear club, following the paths of Pakistan and North Korea.
[i] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/weakened-iran-could-pursue-nuclear-weapon-white-houses-sullivan-says-2024-12-22/