Russia Leaves Karabakh
Written by Hassan Younes
“Putin’s Rasputin,” Aleksandr Dugin “combined his obsessions with occultism and the neo-pagan philosophies of European fascists like Julius Evola and Alain de Benoist to derive his fervently nationalistic ideology of “Eurasianism,” which he promulgated in books with torpid titles such as Foundations of Geopolitics and The Fourth Political Theory.”i His vision of Eurasianism argues for a Turkish-Russian alliance based on his assumption of a genetic-cultural mix between Slavs and Turkic people. This justified an unholy alliance between Putin and Recep Erdogan based on the idea that such an alliance would pull Turkey out of its NATO environment.
Since 2016, Turkey has presented one example after another, proving the erroneous nature of this assumption. The most recent indication was Joe Biden’s announcement of hosting Erdogan in the White House for the first time on May 9. The last meeting between the two leaders took place at the Vilnius 2023 NATO summit, during which Biden persuaded his Turkish counterpart to stop putting obstacles in the way of Sweden joining NATO. The announcement took place simultaneously with the last-minute announcement that Vladimir Putin’s planned visit to Turkey on February 9 would be cancelled. This strongly signifies a change in the direction of Turkish politics away from Russia and its Eurasian vision.
This reality, overlooked by the Kremlin, was detailed in an ICGER-published study by the President of the center, Dr. Yousef, on July 10, 2023, titled “Wagner: A Prong of the Trifurcate Russian Strategic Failure.” The study describes Russia’s chimeras regarding its alliance with Turkey and the latter’s divergence from Russian interests: “Through his “Fourth Political Theory,” nationalist thinker Alexander Dugin gave Putin the illusion that Turkey would leave NATO, arguing that it is a Eurasian state, not an Atlantic state and that its withdrawal from NATO will trigger the disintegration of NATO after which Turkey will join Russia since Russia is the leader of Eurasia. Accordingly, Putin is still presenting Turkey and Erdogan with real geopolitical gains in the hope of realizing the illusion that Turkey would withdraw from NATO, sowing discord and animosity among its members. However, what is clear is that Erdogan is now more attached to NATO than ever before, having witnessed the strategic benefits of being a member after the Russian-Ukrainian war and Finland’s and Sweden’s attempts to join after 200 years of strategic neutrality.”
In the same vein, it has been announced that the Russian peacekeeping force will be exiting the Nagorno-Karabakh region after Azeri forces seized it in September 2023. This came with many developments in the Armenian position toward Russia. Armenia abstained from attending the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) meeting in Minsk on April 13, 2024. Instead, Yerevan attended a trilateral meeting with the U.S. and the E.U. days before the Minsk meeting. On March 13, the European Union adopted a resolution “endors[es] the development of a closer relationship with Armenia,” with Armenia exploring accession to the E.U.ii
Dr. Yousef warned of all these developments in a study titled “Russia Withdraws from the South Caucasus,” published in September 2023. In it, he cautioned against Russia’s strategy of cozying up to Turkey and Azerbaijan: “Russia has been following a misguided strategy since then, promoting an approach that encourages Armenia to withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which is binding it with Russia. This also pushes Armenia to loosen its ties within the Eurasian Union led by Moscow and consider potential membership in NATO despite Turkey’s objections. Such a move would constrain Russia, limiting its maneuverability and burdening it with strategic security constraints in the north, west, and south.
Armenia might also seek E.U. membership, aligning itself economically and militarily with the West along its southern borders. At that point, Armenia could request Russia to close its military bases on its territory, given the perceived Russian failure to protect Armenia, secure its borders, and safeguard its interests, and its inaction vis-à-vis Azerbaijan’s aggressive actions against Armenia.”
i https://www.milkenreview.org/articles/putins-rasputin
ii https://eurasianet.org/armenia-scouts-path-toward-eu-accession