The Deadly Terrorist Attacks in Dagestan: Unsurprising and Preventable
Simultaneous terrorist attacks against a synagogue and a church left 15 police officers, an Orthodox priest, and four civilians dead and many more injured in Dagestan in the Northern Russian Caucasus that CNN described as “coordinated.”
“This evening in the cities of Derbent and Makhachkala armed attacks were carried out on two Orthodox churches, a synagogue and a police checkpoint,” the National Anti-terrorism Committee said in a statement to the state-run RIA Novosti news agency. “As a result of the terrorist attacks, according to preliminary information, a priest from the Russian Orthodox Church and police officers were killed.” The National Anti-Terrorism Committee reported the “neutralization” of five militants: two in Derbent and three in Makhachkala.i
This concurs with the assessment of ICGER president Dr. Mohammad Walid Youssef, published on November 13, 2023 in a paper titled “The Great Strategic Failure: A Nuclear Offensive as Russia’s Last Resort” – Part II, in which he warned that “Islamic groups within the Islamic Russian republics will rally and mobilize the populace, using the Israeli war on Gaza as a catalyst. Even if the war subsides, these groups will steer public sentiment toward animosity against Russia and its Slavic Orthodox Christian nationalism, reigniting a religious-nationalistic war reminiscent of the First and Second Chechen Wars,” as a result of the peaceful and appeasing Russian discourse toward Islamic movements and countries, especially the Taliban, Hamas, and others. Having applied the mathematical equations of the basic law of political stability, he established that political chaos and strife are to be expected inside Russia in the future.
He noted, “Various factors and catalysts for revolutions and religious and national wars converge in these regions. This is compounded with the exploitation of Islamic groups using the Israeli war on Gaza to elicit the emotions of the masses and mobilize them for possible future upheavals against Moscow through separatist claims and rights to self-determination.” He added that “The Slavic republics (Russia, Belarus, Ukraine) caused the disintegration and fragmentation that afflicted the Soviet Union in 1992, and the division of the Russian Federation and the unraveling of its federal structure will originate from these Turkic Islamic republics. It will be fueled by aspirations for independence and the ambition to align with the emerging Turkic Union led by Turkey. This endeavor, supported by Russia and President Putin himself, unfolds within a misguided strategy that is challenging to comprehend or interpret.” He enumerated the eight Islamic republics in Russia, including Dagestan, warning that “This geopolitical sphere poses a significant internal strategic concern for Russia’s future, particularly if it continues to adhere to misguided domestic and foreign policy strategies. […] The imminent threat facing Russia originates from within, sparked by the resurgence of Islamic Turkic ethnicities, particularly in the North Caucasus region, after Russia’s major strategic failure in the South Caucasus. […] Ignoring the activities of Islamic groups in these republics, together with the rise of substantial military and political power under Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, comparable to the strength of the Wagner Group at its peak, can potentially elevate them into a major force. This is especially true if these entities unite under a single leadership during President Putin’s absence from the political scene due to any circumstance, particularly in the absence of a robust Slavic Russian leader, successor, or substitute to lead Russia.
Additionally, in the event of a strategic vacuum, the possible seizure of nuclear warheads by Kadyrov’s army and other Islamic republics in Russia, akin to the division of the Soviet nuclear arsenal among Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus in 1992, poses a substantial future strategic threat to the world. […] the establishment and demise of the Soviet Union were driven by internal factors and nationalist dynamics operating among its peoples, republics, and provinces. It was not a result of foreign offensives from neighboring countries. […] The appeasing discourse employed by Russian media towards Islamic nations, although historically not hostile towards Israel, relaxes constraints on the operations of Islamic groups within the Russian Islamic republics to rally and mobilize the populace, using the Israeli war on Gaza as a catalyst. Even if the war subsides, these groups will steer public sentiment towards animosity against Russia and its Slavic Orthodox Christian nationalism, reigniting a religious-nationalistic war reminiscent of the First and Second Chechen Wars.
At that point, Turkey and the Central Asian republics (forming the Turkic Union) will contribute to escalating the conflict within Russia, inciting people against Moscow. The West is poised to capitalize on this situation, supporting Turkey in taking the lead in the efforts to dismantle Russia internally. Consequently, Russia may find itself with only its nuclear weapons as a means to threaten and potentially use in response to the imminent danger of internal disintegration and fragmentation.”
i https://ria.ru/20240624/dagestan-1954943440.html