Months After Dr. Youssef's Forecast: The Emergence of the Russian-Indian Alliance
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced the strengthening of the strategic partnership between India and Russia, with plans for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This move confirms the predictions made by Dr. Mohamed Walid Youssef, head of ICGER, in a study published on May 19, 2025, titled Will the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Hold? The India-Pakistan Stress Test. In this study, Dr. Youssef noted that the conflict between India and Pakistan, which erupted at the end of April 2025, would lead to “a regional and international realignment, with a Chinese-Pakistani alliance emerging in contrast to a Russian-Indian alliance.”
Modi shared the news on his X account, stating that he and Putin reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening the exceptional strategic partnership between New Delhi and Moscow during a phone call on August 8, 2025.[i] Modi also expressed his anticipation of hosting President Putin in India later this year.
This announcement comes amid mounting pressure on India from the United States due to its ongoing cooperation with Russia. On August 6, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on Indian imports of Russian oil, set to take effect on August 27, 2025.
Reuters reported that Indian officials said India suspended plans to purchase new weapons and aircraft from Washington on August 8, 2025, in response to the tariffs.
Dr. Youssef had predicted in his study that “the conflict between India and Pakistan will lead to a regional and international realignment, with a Chinese-Pakistani alliance emerging against a Russian-Indian alliance.”
He added, “It is well-known that Pakistan shot down two Russian MIG29 and SU30 aircraft, as well as a French Rafale, using Chinese-made PL-15 missiles.”
[i] https://www.axios.com/2025/08/08/modi-putin-trump-tariffs-india-russian-oil