Events in Sweida Reaffirm Dr. Youssef’s Prediction: This Is What He Foretold About “War against the Druze”
The recent events in Sweida, southern Syria, marked by violent clashes, civilian casualties, and violations against Druze religious leaders by the ruling regime in Damascus, following similar incidents previously targeting Alawites in the coastal regions, have once again confirmed the analysis of Dr. Mohammad Walid Youssef, President of ICGER.
In the Center’s 2024 Annual Geopolitical Report, published on February 21, 2025, Dr. Youssef warned that “chaos, fragmentation, and instability will persist in Syria,” and that “the ruling regime will enter new conflicts with the Druze, Kurds, Alawites, and Christians under pressure from Turkey.”
On July 15, 2025, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the death toll resulting from the violence in Sweida had reached 203 people since clashes erupted on July 13, 2025, between Druze factions and tribal armed fighters on the one hand, and forces affiliated with the Damascus regime’s army and security services on the other.[i]
Dr. Youssef had noted in his 2025 Syria outlook that “chaos, division, and instability will prevail in Syria, and the new ruling regime will be incapable of unifying the country due to its failure to meet the political, administrative, and economic demands of the Druze, Kurds, Alawites, and Christians.”
He further added:
“The regime will engage in renewed conflicts with these communities, under pressure from Turkey and as a result of internal dynamics within the regime itself, specifically the dominance of hardline power centers that view fighting these communities as a religious duty and a means to seize economic and financial resources that can no longer be obtained from major international donors.”
Dr. Youssef also foresaw the failure of the National Dialogue Conference, predicting that it would be limited to the Sunni Arab faction and its allied figures from other groups (Kurds, Druze, Alawites, Christians) who would be included as tokens meant to ward off Western criticism. He warned that such exclusionary practices would only deepen Western frustration as the regime, along with Turkey, continues to monopolize power and governance without meaningfully involving Syria’s other communities.
[i] https://www.syriahr.com/en/366023/