The European Union: Between Classical Disintegration and Quantic Expansion
As previously argued, political occurrences follow classical Newtonian behavior at times and behave quantically at other times. Under the classical Newtonian conditions, political occurrences submit to classical foundational principles and fundamental characteristics, moving according to a set path controlled by known rules and restrictions. They conform to the material laws of politics regulating the Newtonian political vacuum coordinates axes (O.P., O.I., O.G., OH – see The Material Laws of Politics for reference). It is then possible to comprehensively understand and predict the future movement of political occurrences, modulate its trajectory, and control and guide its direction. Therefore, it is feasible to know the political occurrences and regional and international relations because the clear and straightforward characteristics abound in the conventional classical Newtonian sphere, such as:
- It is possible to identify, understand, and measure political variables and shifts precisely.
- The classical political sphere contains cases and probabilities in which a political event can occur and manifest itself (be it a political crisis, a war, a truce, regional or international relations, or strife and perturbation). There is no possible case and probability outside of this classical sphere. Whereas in the quantic political sphere, an observer cannot define the potential circumstances and probabilities for a particular political occurrence as demonstrated later on.
- The shadow of classical Newtonian political conditions is clear and apparent, and it is possible to manipulate it and perceive and understand its energy comprehensively, in contrast to the shadow of perplexing and obscure quantic political cases that make precise identification impossible.
Looking at the political occurrence at hand in this study, the European Union, we realize that, since its inception, it has behaved classically at times and quantically other times. This study will dissect its present and future using a classical and a quantum frame of reference.
- Classically:
Since its inception, the European Union’s development has stirred much debate and controversy, perhaps more than any other political occurrence in Modern European history. The Union started when a few European countries founded the Coal and Steel Community in 1957 for trade and economic purposes, and it remained an economic partnership when it became the European Economic Community (EEC). After the Maastricht Treaty was concluded in 1993, the objective of the Union became political, with French President François Mitterand and German Chancellor Helmut Kohl’s agreement on politically unifying Europe and establishing the European Union. The political objectives and occurrences became confounded with economic goals and occurrences, causing perturbance in the Union.
The European community has not had any major crises since it was founded until the 20th Century. The European Economic Community saw no disruption or chaos similar to the schisms emerging in the European Union for several years now, likely because the occurrences in the former were strictly economic, concurring with the purposes for which the community was established in 1957. The chasms threatening its unity started appearing at the dawn of the Second Millenium and the emergence of the Euro Zone in 2000, with some seeking to establish political institutions for the Union. They moved toward political unity by formulating a treaty or constitution for the Union starting in 2005. This was the inflection point at which political crises began appearing in the countries of the Union. These crises will necessarily lead to the disintegration of the European Union and its disappearance from the international political sphere in the coming decades. Because this Union is a classical Newtonian political occurrence contradicting the objective laws of politics, it is destined to fail, as we will prove here.
The French people rejected the European constitution in the 2005 referendum, as did the Dutch in the June 2005 referendum. Therefore, states of the Union were compelled to replace the previously agreed-upon European constitution with the Treaty of Lisbon in 2007, which did not realize the original objectives of the European constitution of establishing the foundations of a federalist European state. The objection of some European peoples pushed the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, which took effect on the 1st of December 2009. This indicates a foundational crisis in the political genesis of the European Union, in contrast to its condition when it was driven by economic, trade, and financial interests.
The gap between these nations and states has been widening since 2015 with the intensification of the influx of Asian and African refugees and the consequent crisis. This political crisis submits to the holistic political sphere’s classical, objective equations and laws. If we subject the European Union, following Newtonian laws, to the law of political stability, the result would be S<1 (see The Material Laws of Politics for reference). This result is definitive mathematical evidence of the spread of perturbance and chaos within this political occurrence. Expanding on interpreting and explaining the political formula and law using political occurrences and events in the European Union is imperative. Crises are spreading in the Union, and political disagreements are escalating between its members. These chasms are widening the gaps to an extent where the European Commission and the European Political Community, as well as liberal political elites supporting the Union, cannot resolve the resulting crises or attenuate the disputes to restore the fabric of the Union, from which the devolvement and disintegration of the Union will ensue in the coming decades.
Since 2014, with the flux of immigrants from Asia and Africa to Europe in 2015, several incoming social groupings have formed and spread in member-states. More of these communities emerge with every new wave of immigration, which causes the expansion of discord and the deepening and widening of the schisms, making it impossible for European leaders to resolve crises until the European Union dies down.
Several foundational Newtonian occurrences emerged with the rise of nations and modern states in Europe since The Peace of Westphalia in 1648. States became sovereign ethnic nation-states in which the people elect their leaders and government. Governments design political, economic, and social plans for their citizens without external coercion. They secure and protect their borders with their armies and border agencies. These countries remained under these foundational conditions for a long while, waging wars and launching military campaigns since 1648, culminating in two World Wars. These occurrences stayed unchanged in their influence until the appearance of a modern liberal class that wanted to contradict these foundational occurrences and destroy all the coordinates. No political occurrence can successfully achieve this. Instead, it will only spread political strife, create crises, and provoke chaos in the political sphere.
Every European government was accustomed to designing its own policies as part of the state’s sovereignty. Since the Lisbon Treaty in 2007, the European Commission has taken part in the general planning of the policies of the member-states of the European Union. It has taken over part of the sovereignty of every state, contradicting the fact that, under classical Newtonian laws, sovereignty is, by definition, an essential, indivisible occurrence. Only quantically can sovereignty be subjected to division, partition, and fragmentation. However, the Lisbon Treaty partitioned sovereignty, putting some of it under the control of the state and the rest under the control of the European Commission in Bruxelles, shattering this classical foundational occurrence.
Every European country had its own foreign policy, led by the state’s foreign minister. However, since the Lisbon Treaty, the European Union got a foreign and security affairs director, in lieu of a foreign minister, attending regional and international forums and summits shadowing the work of national foreign ministers. Additionally, the Lisbon Treaty required the European Union to have a unified foreign policy regarding international political events, which eclipsed the independent foreign policies of states. This contradicted the condition under which the classical occurrence was since the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 regarding the independence of each state’s foreign policy. The Lisbon Treaty controverted this foundational occurrence and replaced it with a quantum occurrence in which the European Commission in Bruxelles and every member state share foreign policy.
The modern European state used to set the budget for its government, defining its financial, monetary, economic, tax, and customs policies according to the interests of its country and the resources of its economy. This condition endured for centuries until the Lisbon Treaty controverted this foundational political occurrence, seizing this sovereign right from the different governments. It forced governments to adhere to the conditions set by the European Commission for the governments to be allowed to announce and implement their budgets.
European countries fought bloody wars, leaving millions of victims behind to defend a foundational classical occurrence: each country’s sovereign borders. The Schengen Agreement canceled this occurrence and opened the borders as though no blood had been spilled to protect them over the last few centuries.
The European Union is uncompromising in prohibiting “market distortion” and “state trade distortions,” it enters into complex, hard negotiations with China to prevent these distortions from happening in the holistic market and economy, which is the correct thing to do with regard to the economy. It is mandatory to submit to the objective laws of the market. It is incomprehensible why the European liberal political elites are strict about implementing these principles in the economy to prevent distortions but are not in the political sphere. On the contrary, they distort the market of political resources on purpose while wanting to maintain the market of economic resources undistorted. These elites are oblivious to the fact that the market of political resources obeys objective laws and Newtonian principles, like the market of economy and resources obeys market laws. If these elites want to protect the market and the economy from distortion, they should first protect the political sphere from distortions, but they are doing the opposite. The European liberal political elites are oblivious to the distortions in the political sphere caused by their policies.
What happened when the European Union was founded was that European nations did not walk through a historical path that transformed Europe into one nation, despite sharing many characteristics, like European tribes had merged into modern nations after a long history specific to each of them. The European countries did not assimilate into one nation, resulting in the emergence of a European Union-nation. Instead, European nations and states are walking in a contradictory path, where many new societies and nations are emerging due to the influx of immigrants and refugees from Asia and Africa. The liberal political elites want these incompatible nations and peoples to accept the European Union as a united state in an arrogant, coercive course of action, oblivious to the reality of the objective laws of politics they are violating.
Since his election in the Spring of 2017, French President Emmanuel Macron has sought a new era where the European Union comes closer to European countries. He called for a unified European budget, naming a Finance Minister for the Euro Zone and the establishment of a European Monetary Fund to face the monetary and financial crises facing the European Union. He also sought the establishment of a unified European Army in a German-French rapprochement. This objective was revived after the dispute between NATO leaders in a June 2018 meeting, when American President Donald Trump accused NATO members of lagging behind in financing the Treaty’s budget. Political researchers agree that a state emerges when one solid institution that forms its backbone comes into existence: its amry. A European nation is possible with the creation of a unified European Army, which is the goal of European liberal political elites, oblivious to the fact that the European Union, according to the Lisbon Treaty, is an occurrence that contradicts the classical Newtonian laws of politics.
President Macron could not attain his goal of establishing a unified European army, ignoring the fact that Europe in general, and France in particular, could not protect their soil from the enemy had it not been for the United States. France could not liberate its lands in WWI and WWII, incapacitated by Germany. What Macron and former French President Jacques Chirac aimed for, i.e., to establish a unified French Army, is a contrarian political occurrence – taking a different path, controverting classical political laws. The difference and dissension between European nations and countries exceeds their points of agreement. Had it not been for the establishment of NATO after WWII, other world wars would have occurred between European armies and nations. Similarly, had it not been for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, geopolitical schisms and chasms would have appeared between them.
Scientific truth dictates that every occurrence or political phenomenon disrupts the coordinates of the political sphere if it contradicts the classical political occurrences and the laws that protect stability because of the proliferation of political crises, chaos, and discord. It might provoke wars, which is the interpretation of the deep divides the European Union is witnessing today. It is also the interpretation of the emergence and proliferation of extreme nationalist and right-wing parties denying the very existence of the European Union, its institutions, and the Euro Zone.
Therefore, NATO, in its essence, is a treaty to proscribe wars between the same European states that witnessed the rise of nationalism over three centuries ago. The rise of the European Union inherently controverts the essence of this nation-state. The continuity of the Union or the establishment of a European Army and a European state requires the emergence of a European nationalism and a nation that speaks the same language. It is implausible to argue that Europe might adopt German as the sole official language of a unified European state. The French, Italians, Spanish, and others will only accept their own as official languages for this state, especially with the increased movement of nationalist forces with some right-wing parties ascending to power in European parliaments in Germany, Sweden, Holland, Greece, Spain, and France and the formation of a governing coalition in Italy led by Georgia Meloni since2022.
For the European Union’s development to stay on track and for the establishment of a European Army, it is imperative for European peoples to morph into one European nation. A new major political occurrence will then materialize: a United, National Europe. This will turn the European Union into one state with a unified army, something currently impossible for the European nations to achieve. The genesis of such a major political occurrence might necessitate a thousand years or longer for it to become a Newtonian occurrence.
When Europe was under the law of classical occurrences, following the path of this law and other objective laws of politics, great empires arose, such as the British Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and other powerful nations like Holland, Italy, and Spain. Europe conquered the world and spread its control and influence over most known inhabited lands, including Asia, Africa, America, and Australia. It also conquered seas and oceans, amassing vast riches for its nations. It started a modern economy in which it was the foremost contributor to manufacturing, trade, money, and banks. London became the headquarters of the world’s finance and politics for decades in the 19th Century. When Europe started veering off the course of these laws, controverting classical occurrences, reversing the conditions needed for these occurrences, and conceiving opposite occurrences since the end of WWII, it became a weakened old continent as a result of the leadership of the liberal political elite.
When Europe conformed to its foundational conditions and raison d’être, it ruled over the world, and its light shone brightly throughout the lands. Its armies carried political institutions such as parliaments, modern governments, and military establishments to its colonies, as well as the very idea of an institutional state, applying it in its colonies. The rest of the world was highly impressed with the West well into the middle of the 20th Century, and people adopted European models of political schools like laicism, liberalism, ethnic nationalism, nationalism, socialism, capitalism, and others. Great historical empires like China, Japan, and India leaned towards Western Europe and established similar political and economic institutions.
Europe became feeble when the European political elites emerged, and Europe controverted objective, classical political laws, opposing the creationist facts that led to its rise. Its states weakened, its control over the world receded, and it retreated into its national borders. Countries that mimicked Europe then emerged. For example, China became a great power and a world pole, surpassing the entire European Union. India, a former British colony, almost matches the European Union. Europe became so incapacitated that states with negligible influence during European expansion rebelled against it. Indeed, Europe had built these states and their political, economic, monetary, and all other modern state institutions during the 20th century. These artificial states later defied Europe and the West, which had established them in Asia and Africa.
Here appears the difference between Europe controlling the world when it conformed to the law of its foundational facts and its weakness and feebleness when it contradicted them. Its weakness made it a target to be challenged by countries it had created because the policies of the ruling Liberal parties refused and controverted the policies of its founding fathers in the 18th and 19th centuries.
These parties are between two eventualities: either their policies are correct and uphold the interests of the European nations, or the policies of the founding fathers and establishment elites are correct. In the case it is the latter, then the policies of the ruling liberal parties in the European Union since the dawn of the 21st century are corrupt, missing great opportunities for its nations and its governments.
It is evident for political researchers that the policies of the founding fathers elevated their nations and states to the positions of global poles, in which they remained for over two centuries. Their policies precipitated the amassing of great economic wealth and political resources that Western and European countries still benefit from today. In contrast, the policies of the ruling liberal elites are pushing European Union countries out of their positions as poles in the global system and into average or weak positions.
European countries formed great empires in the past two centuries, taking over most of the world and spreading their power over them without establishing the European Union. Instead, the rise of Europe and its control of seas, oceans, and continents coincided with the rise of the nation-state. This meant preserving an ethnonationalist spirit, protecting borders separating different European countries, and the outflow of European immigrants to the rest of the world. The nineteenth and the first half of the twentieth centuries were the formational period of Europe through its foundational, classical political occurrences.
When these foundational occurrences faded with the ascension to power of the liberal parties in the E.U. countries, so did the greatness of Europe, its influence, and its power.
Occurrences concurring with the emergence of the European Union at the beginning of the 21st century are contrary to the essential foundational occurrences of European countries at the time of their inception. Their ascension to the positions of world poles and their control of the world resulted from their policies in the 19th century, not only through armed coercion.
The refugee crisis that started in 2015 revealed the contradictory occurrences the European Union retains in its midst, the antithetical characteristics of its member states, and the political phenomena controverting the raison d’être of European countries. In an intense argument between France and Italy, the two governments severely criticized each other. French President Emmanuel Macron reprobated the Italian coalition government for prohibiting refugee boats from mooring in its ports and its coast. Matteo Salvini, leader of the Lega Nord, responded to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, stating that Italy would not become Europe’s refugee camp. The European Union failed to protect the external borders of member states, and it went through fruitless negotiations and spent billions of dollars to convince Turkey to stop refugees from leaving its shores toward Europe. The European Union dispensed over 6 billion USD to Turkey between 2015 and 2016 with the condition that the latter would stop the influx of refugees. The Union now hopes to do the same in Europe.
The European Union is still bewildered and impotent in the face of the refugee dilemma. The Refugee Agency estimates that 1 million refugee claims will have been lodged by the end of 2023, with half of them having arrived in the first middle of this year. The crisis originated in the Union itself. Europe was the origin of the outflow of immigration from its shores bound for the rest of the world as long as it conformed to its foundational political occurrences. It became a destination for immigrants at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century when it veered off the course of its foundational occurrences, which had secured its control over the world back then. It allowed for new and contradictory occurrences when it opened its borders and countries for immigrants.
Ruling liberal parties in the E.U. will not retreat from implementing its policies, even if political strife, Islamic Middle Eastern extremism, and terrorism spread, fueled by these elites’ delusions of an open-border Union protecting refugees’ rights. This will result in the rise of new immigrant nations within the Union, competing with native and original nations over power and resources.
The policies of the ruling liberal elites and parties resulted in the appearance of the most dangerous extremist Islamic terrorists inside the Union. E.U. member-states became a haven for all extremist immigrants wanted by the authorities in their countries of origin. This did not push the ruling liberal elite to amend its policies, even though it is clear that they would necessarily lead their nations and countries to destruction as long as they remained attached to the delusions of the postmodern and liberal ideas that appeared in the second half of the 20th century. This is the explanation given for the rise of the ethnic and nationalist right-wing parties and the gradual increase of their supporters and followers. It is also why they reached power in parliaments in U.S. states and counties before it grew stronger and gained broader support. They awakened to renewed European values and foundational political occurrences. They attained the top three positions in the parliamentary elections in their countries since 2014. These parties seem to be heading to more positions of power and control in the European political arena and to monopolizing government formation in the coming decades. Classically and according to Newtonian laws, these parties will prevail and seize power, resulting in the disintegration of the European Union in the coming decades.
Western right-wing parties see that political and economic liberalism is now a transnational, cross-cultural world movement that does not recognize boundaries and borders between political entities, seeking to dissolve it with an economic and media globalization that removes differences between nations and states in order to amass wealth. Globalized neoliberalism contradicts classical liberalism, which focuses on concentrating wealth, manufacturing, finance, and politics in national centers in the West. Neoliberalism, in contrast, aims to disperse these centers, which explains the essential change in the world and the swapping of positions between the West and the East on the one hand and the North and South on the other. During the presidency of Donald Trump, the United States turned into a protectionist country denouncing globalization. Many European countries will follow the United States’ path when their right-wing parties ascend to power.
Scrutinizing this change and role reversal between countries and nations regarding globalization reveals a strong indication that they resulted from the law of foundational political occurrences. The motion of this law drives Europe and the West in general towards the conditions it was in during the 19th century and until the mid-20th century. Therefore, according to classical Newtonian principles, liberal parties in the European Union will necessarily lose power in the coming few decades. The common characteristics between nationalist right-wing parties, without any prior collaboration between them, are evidence of their intersecting objectives, indicating that the law of stability and foundational occurrences directed the political events in the European Union and proving that it is a historical movement, independent from prior planning, organizing, or collusion when these parties were first established and when they became operational. They did not meet to organize their ranks and unify their discourse except in 2015 when the Europe of Nations and Freedoms coalition was formed. These parties can mobilize E.U. citizens to stand behind their candidate lists and vote for them in different countries of the Union because of their shared principles and values.
The objective classical political law started taking effect historically to change the political arena in the European Union. It will push contradictory liberal political policies to disintegration in the coming decades. Conversely, it will necessarily elevate the political parties, conforming with the foundational occurrences to power according to classical laws.
- Quantically:
- The essential quality of the quantic political sphere is the impossibility of an occurrence or a quantum political condition with stable and known characteristics, in contrast to the Newtonian political sphere, where occurrences or political conditions show invariable and immutable classical characteristics. However, some cases of quantum politics include contained and specific values and occurrences, too, though these are exceptions, not the rule.
- The probabilities of occurrences or possible and impossible cases happening are equal in the quantum political sphere. We will use the case of the E.U. as a model since the Union has a chance to survive, expand, and annex other countries to it. The disintegration of the Union and its division into smaller allied entities has an equal probability of happening. These entities would be similar to the following:
- The Visegrád Group, combining Romania, Bulgaria, Czech, and Slovakia
- The Bucharest Nine, including Romania, Bulgaria, Czech, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia
- The Nordic group, including Finland, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from outside of the Euro Zone
- The Central and Western Europe group, including France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Holland, and Austria
- This is in contrast to the classical political sphere, where improbabilities cannot exist, and the only possible probabilities are conceivable.
As previously argued, the European Union is classically heading toward disintegration, not resilience and expansion. The evidence provided was France’s action in the Fall of 2022 when it sought to establish a new political community by inviting 44 countries to Prague, in the presence of the European Union (27 countries), Turkey, Ukraine, Switzerland, Britain, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Serbia, Montenegro, Northern Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia, and Kosova.[i] This became a new political forum where these different parties met to discuss and argue over the urgent political matters in their arenas, which they could not resolve without regular yearly meetings to agree on solutions.
Had the European Union the capability to expand and annex countries, it would not need to establish new political forums and societies.
When evidence clearly shows that the E.U. is behaving classically at times and quantically at others, France leans toward abstaining from expanding the Union under the pretext of refusing to complicate the work of European institutions further when new members join. In contrast, Germany seeks to expand the European Union, with German Chancellor Helmut Olaf Scholz stating that France’s new political forum stated: “I do not want an E.U. of exclusive clubs or directorates, but an E.U. with members enjoying equal rights. […] I’m committed to the enlargement of the European Union to include the countries of the Western Balkans, as well as Ukraine, Moldova, and, down the line, also Georgia.”[ii]
Sholz called in his speech during the Congress of the Party of European Socialists for “the expansion of the European Union, saying it would allow the bloc to remain geopolitically important. Scholz said it was important to reform some of the E.U.’s treaties so that new members could join. “A united European Union of 27, 30, 36 states, with then more than 500 million free and equal citizens, can bring its weight to bear even more strongly in this world,” he said. “I am committed to the enlargement of the E.U. That the E.U. continues to grow eastward is a win-win for all of us,” he added.”[iii]
Since a quantum condition clearly reveals itself microscopically, the positions of Greece, Cyprus, Hungary, and other member-states of the European Union are incontrovertible evidence of the classical and quantic behavior of the European Union. Greece and Cyprus reject Turkey’s membership, as do France, Germany, Holland, and Austria. These countries call for including Ukraine and Moldova in the Union as members. Hungary refuses the latter joining and advocates for admitting and resuming negotiations with Turkey instead. Negotiations between the E.U. and Turkey were halted in 2016 as a consequence of policies of the Justice and Development Party, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the crushing of the opposition and purging its members from government institutions, imprisoning them, and subjecting them to illegal mock trials. This provoked Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades to denounce the European Union’s double standards for allowing Turkey’s candidature to become a member, effectively giving Turkey a diplomatic shield. “It is not possible for us [the E.U.] to say that Russia is violating international law, but when international law is violated by a candidate country against other members of the European Union, we pretend that we do not understand the significance. It is this tolerance that emboldens [Turkey] and creates the risk of a new conflict in Europe.”[iv]
Conversely, Hungarian President Viktor Orbán refuses more Christian nations such as Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova to join an E.U. that is essentially Christian in its spirit. He calls for Turkey, a sizeable Muslim country (90 million inhabitants), to join this Christian “club.” President Erdogan accused the E.U. of being a Christian club in 2017 when the Union was celebrating its 60th anniversary in the Vatican with Pope Francis. Angered and provoked, Erdogan gave a speech to the people stating that the European Union insisted on showing the world that it is a Christian club. To further expose the quantum condition on the microscopic level, we can take the example of Hungary joining the Parliamentary Assembly of Turkic States in 2019, despite the far-right Christian position of the ruling Fidesz party led by Orban and with complete disregard for the Turkish Islamic identity of that assembly and the long history of struggle, conquests, and wars between the Ottoman Empire and Hungary and later the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
The objection of one Christian state like Hungary to other Christian states entering a Christian club, such as the European Union, and itself entering an Islamic club like the Parliamentary Assembly of Turkic States, which has a long history of launching military campaigns against Christian Europe is clear evidence of the quantic behavior of countries, i.e., political occurrences on a microscopic level.
The contradiction between Hungary objecting to Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, and Moldova joining the E.U., while Greece and Cyprus seeking it, is a quantic probability resulting from Hungary being a Catholic majority state, while the others are a vast Orthodox majority.
Therefore, the second characteristic of the quantum state makes the probability of the E.U. disintegrating as likely as its endurance and expansion. In contrast, according to the classical political sphere, the E.U. will necessarily disintegrate, and its foundations will be shaken in two or three decades.
To further prove the quantum behavior of the political occurrence, it is imperative to identify a group of variables that happen due to the movement of these occurrences and to chase the shadows of the quantum conditions and their influence on the quantum sphere to handle it accordingly.
It is necessary to provide ample examples to explain it to elucidate the ways to handle the shadows of quantum political conditions of the microscopic occurrences and their influence on the totalizing macroscopic political occurrence.
In the case of the E.U., the shadow of this macroscopic political occurrence reveals itself as a constitutional, democratic, liberal, secular union – even though its people belong to different Christian denominations. It is a free-market centrist entity ruled by center-right and center-left parties.
This shadow remained unchanged since the establishment of the Coal and Steel Community in 1957. It has also been stable, classical, and constant until the apparition of other microscopic shadows around new political parties a decade ago, affecting the general shadow of the European Union and instigating change.
Right-wing nationalist parties and far-left parties have shadows hovering over them. It is imperative to know the energy field of every field to measure its effect on the energy field of the macroscopic shadow surrounding the E.U. and measure the variables resulting from the quantum political occurrences on the microscopic level to understand the change happening to the total political occurrence.
Undoubtedly, this is a daunting task while laying the foundations of a quantum political science school of thought. We are paving the way for political scientists to build political science on scientific principles, laws, and material classical and quantum formulas.
Identifying the effects of the shadows of the new parties in Europe indicates the future behavior of the E.U. and its movement, and it becomes possible to project its endurance and expansion or its disintegration and disappearance.
As previously stated, particles and microscopic occurrences behave quantically. Therefore, far-right and far-left parties in the E.U. behave in this manner and establish their political shadows accordingly. Several parties demanded prioritizing the national state over the E.U., national sovereignty over E.U. sovereignty, national interests over the interests of immigrants and refugees, traditional Christian and family values over liberal values, and the sanctification of national borders. These include the far-right wing in Denmark, Alternative for Germany, the National Rally in France (previously the Front National), Fidesz in Hungary, Law and Justice in Poland, Vox in Spain, and the Party for Freedom in Holland.
However, these parties take on a classical Newtonian behavior in some cases or when they reach power and form coalition governments in their states. It creates mixed conditions, not purely quantum or classical conditions. As a consequence, its policies, strategies, local and regional matters, and international relations become in disarray. This can explain the case of Georgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy party. Meloni promised her followers to implement the previously mentioned demands in a classical Newtonian political behavior for an extremist right-wing party mobilizing people with a populist discourse going back two centuries. People rushed to it, moved by feelings of nostalgia for the classical nationalist rule, electing the party and putting it in power. However, when the party governs, it takes on an unpredictable quantum behavior whose trajectory and movement cannot be predicted. This is not a reversal of its principles and discourse but the nature of the quantum political occurrence that takes over, just like the physical particle taking a quantum course and leaving the Newtonian physical nature.
French Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin could not understand and fully grasp the reality of the possibility of the political occurrence suddenly taking a quantum path, which is what happened with Georgia Meloni’s government when he stated: “Meloni is just like Le Pen, she gets elected on a ‘just you wait and see’ platform and then what we see is that it does not stop and that it grows,”[v] adding that Meloni is facing a dangerous immigration crisis.
Darmanin’s statement soured the relations between France and Italy, and Italy canceled the visit of its foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, to France. French President Emmanuel Macron invited Meloni to visit Paris to quell the tensions, where she was cordially welcomed in June 2023. Meloni did not back down or show flexibility regarding immigration, stressing the importance of bilateral and multilateral efforts to resolve this complex crisis.
This indicates that the Brothers of Italy right-wing party did not reverse its principles and values; instead, it took a quantum path in this case and behaved classically in other cases, making it difficult for the political observer to project its trajectory and movement ahead of time, just like with other European right-wing parties.
European governments submitting and conforming to the demands of Bruxelles to set their budgets without deficits exceeding 2% of the gross national product and to keep general debt under 60% of their GDP has a quantum meaning. Similarly, the quantum meaning of sovereignty is different from its classical meaning.
Therefore, the European Union is bound to endure and expand according to quantum conditions. Although the shadows of the right-wing parties change as their behavior changes from the classical to the quantum, these shadows do not deeply impact the macroscopic shadow of the European Union. Therefore, the probabilities of the E.U.’s disappearance or endurance are equal under quantum conditions, in contrast to the classical condition that dictates the coming disintegration and disappearance of the European Union within decades.
However, if right-wing parties seize power in all E.U. member-states simultaneously, these countries will behave classically and dissolve the Union consensually, returning to the national state, ethnic identity, sanctity of national borders and sovereignty, and previous national currencies replacing the Euro.
This quantum meaning of sovereignty and submission to the European Commission in Bruxelles leads right-wing parties in Europe to a dualistic behavior, whereby Hungary behaves classically in terms of its sovereignty by maintaining its relations with Russia and importing low-cost power at an increased pace, which prevented gas shortages in the winter of 2022-2023, with an exemption granted to Hungary from the sanctions against Russia by the European Union. Meanwhile, Europe was struggling to secure alternative gas resources from Qatar, Algeria, and the United States to compensate for its shortages. Suddenly, Hungary turned to a quantum behavior, relinquishing some of its sovereignty by agreeing to the E.U.’s demands to fight corruption in order to receive its share of 7.5 billion euros from the European Commission.
Similarly, Poland was on a classical course of behavior in securing its sovereignty when it adopted laws to control its media, ignoring European values. Then, it takes a quantum approach to receive billions of Euros from the European Commission, which allows for dividing sovereignty and relinquishing some of it while maintaining the rest. The quantum behavior of some European countries will lead to the endurance and probable expansion of the Union.
This dualistic behavior of the political occurrence resulted in Italy joining the Chinese Belt-and-Road infrastructure project to receive billions of dollars for infrastructure development projects. Despite its withdrawal from the agreement in 2023, this behavior caused a schism inside the European Union. Similarly, France and Germany took a classical path at times and a quantum path at other times in their international relations, threatening the foundations of the European Union’s unity. This is evidence that the political occurrence, like its physical counterpart, behaves classically or quantically on the microscopic level, i.e., on the level of small entities such as parties and minor countries. Conversely, macroscopic major entities such as the European Union take a classical path, even though this does not mean that it cannot behave quantically in some instances.
During French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to China in April 2023, he stated, “The worse thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction.”[vi], angered his European partners and provoked the President of the European Commission Ursula Von Der Leyen to “call on the European Union to maintain a common position toward China”[vii] out of fear that the chasm within the E.U. widens when the shadow surrounding every country gets disturbed and becomes impossible to measure, along with its energy, because of the disarray stemming from clashing classical and quantum behaviors. Such a condition will spread strife in the general shadow surrounding the E.U.
This caused Germany to reconsider its relationship with China as well. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen visited Beijing at the end of 2022. Some cracks appeared in the Union because of every country’s independent pursuit of its needs and interests since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the consequent sanctions imposed on Russia.
The strategic independence of Europe from NATO and the United States, moving toward complementary defense institutions with purely European influence, and how these would cause the disintegration of the E.U. or its endurance and expansion requires another special study dedicated to the topic.
Therefore, as evidenced in the preceding, the European Union is a macroscopic political occurrence taking a classical path toward its dissolution and the separation of its ties. In the coming decades, its foundations will have weakened. From a quantum perspective, which the E.U. follows sometimes, especially on the macroscopic level of its components, the probabilities of it staying or disintegrating are equal.
[i] https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/international-summit/2022/10/06/
[ii] https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/scholz-speech-prague-charles-university-2080752
[iii] https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-olaf-scholz-calls-for-eu-expansion-military-autonomy/a-63452833
[iv] https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/10/11/the-eus-tolerance-and-double-standards-with-turkey-embolden-erdogan-claims-cyprus-presiden
[v] https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/05/05/darmanin-accuses-meloni-of-being-unable-to-solve-migration-problems-reviving-french-italian-tensions_6025522_4.html
[vi] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/11/world/europe/macron-china-allies.html
[vii] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-18/eu-calls-for-coherent-china-stance-after-macron-sowed-doubts#xj4y7vzkg
