Video - Diplomatic Tensions Rise Between Iran and Turkey
A diplomatic crisis has recently escalated between Iran and Turkey, with Iran’s Foreign Ministry summoning the Turkish ambassador in Tehran. In response, Ankara summoned Iran’s chargé d’affaires. The tensions stem from statements made by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who warned Iran against “destabilizing Syria.” This development aligns with predictions made by ICGER President Dr. Youssef during the launch of the center’s 2024 Annual Geopolitical Report on February 21, 2025. Dr. Youssef noted that the historical relationship between Shiite Persians and Sunni Turks follows cyclical patterns, inevitably leading to conflict.
Iran Summons Turkish Ambassador
On March 3, 2025, Iran’s Foreign Ministry summoned Turkey’s Ambassador to Tehran, Hicabi Kirlangic. Mahmoud Haidari, Director General for Mediterranean and Eastern Europe Affairs at the ministry, emphasized that “The common interests of both countries and the sensitive conditions in the region necessitate avoiding false statements and unrealistic analyses that could lead to disagreements and tensions in bilateral relations,” the Iranian official said, in reference to remarks last week by Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan about Iran’s policies in the West Asia region.[i]
Turkey Responds
In turn, Anadolu Agency reported on March 4, 2025,[ii] that Turkey “invited the Iranian chargé d’affaires in Ankara over allegations by some Iranian officials about Türkiye, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Oncu Keceli said, according to diplomatic sources. Keceli noted that the Iranian charge d’affaires was invited to the Foreign Ministry to exchange views and to address those allegations. Stressing that Turkish and Iranian officials meet regularly and exchange views, he noted that bilateral issues were also discussed during the meeting.
It has been observed that Iranian officials have recently been voicing more criticism in public against Türkiye, Keceli said, adding that a file prepared by the ministry on this issue had previously been forwarded to the Iranian side.
‘We believe that foreign policy issues should not be used as material for domestic politics in any case. In this respect, we prefer to convey critical messages that need to be delivered to another country directly to their interlocutors. We have followed this path today as well.’”
“We highly value our relations with Iran. It is important for us to strengthen the relations between Türkiye and Iran,” the Turkish official added.
Geopolitical Insights from Dr. Youssef’s Talk
During ICGER’s annual report launch, Dr. Youssef noted that “the events that took place in the Middle East in 2024 have triggered a historical cycle between Shiite Persians and Sunni Turks.” He added that “what is currently unfolding between Shiite Persian Iran and its allies, and Sunni Turkey and the Sunni Arab states in the Gulf, is a historical cycle repeating itself.”
He explained, “For over a millennium, the balance of power in the Middle East has oscillated between Shiite Persian forces and Sunni Turkish Seljuks and their allies.” Dr. Youssef emphasized that “what we are witnessing now, especially in Syria, is a continuation of these historical cycles.”
He elaborated, saying: “Each empire and each era of influence in the Middle East emerges from the ruins of the other. When a Shiite Persian empire rises, it does so on the remnants of a Sunni Turkish empire, and vice versa.”
Dr. Youssef concluded that “the current retreat of Iranian influence and the resurgence of Turkish power in the Middle East are phases of this historical cycle.” He predicted that “this ongoing cycle will inevitably culminate in a Turkish-Iranian conflict, expected between 2027 and 2030.” He added, “Iran and Turkey are keenly aware of this historical trajectory and are making significant efforts to avoid such a confrontation.”
You can watch Dr. Youssef’s full remarks during the report launch between minutes 15:55 and 21:23 via the following link: https://youtu.be/73nJiYtADbo
[i] https://irangov.ir/detail/459445
[ii] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iranian-charge-daffaires-invited-to-turkish-foreign-ministry/3499546