The Middle East and the Disintegration of its Geopolitical Makeup
The rapidly changing situation and the events unfolding in the Middle East intersect with last year’s predictions by ICGER president Dr. Yousef. He had clearly stated, right after the October 7 attacks and the ensuing war between Hamas and Israel, that the spillover of violence would affect the geopolitical makeup of the region in a study published on October 12, 2023, titled “Hamas Raids Israel: The Disintegration of the Geopolitical Makeup of the Middle East”[i] and a lecture on October 26, 2023, titled “The Geopolitical Landscape 100 Years After the Treaty of Lausanne.” The recent dangerous escalation in the region included the expansion of the war on the northern border of Israel, attacks against targets in Beirut’s Southern Suburb, the assassination of all first-rank Hezbollah leaders – including its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, and the October 1, 2024, Iranian attack that targeted the heart of Israel.
Observers are continuously monitoring the situation and what an Israeli response could look like. Former prime minister Naftali Bennet wrote on his X account: “Israel has now its greatest opportunity in 50 years to change the face of the Middle East. The leadership of Iran, which used to be good at chess, made a terrible mistake this evening. We must act *now* to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its central energy facilities, and to fatally cripple this terrorist regime.”[ii]
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday told Iranians that regime change was looming. “When Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think — everything will be different,” Netanyahu said in a video statement addressed to Iranians, in which he lambasted the “fanatic theocrats” who rule the country.[iii]
In his publication, Dr. Yousef noted that, in case the war spills over and Hezbollah enters the battle, a new stage of the war will start. He wrote: “It is a golden chance for Israel to involve the U.S. in a decisive war during which it will fight against all its enemies simultaneously. For over a decade, Israel could not drag the U.S. into a strike against Iran and its nuclear and missile programs, exterminating its growing military, scientific, and technological capabilities and resources. […] New global and regional poles appear in the Middle East, Asia, Europe, and Africa. Countries such as Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia will be partitioned and torn apart. Borders will change, and new countries and geopolitical entities will appear on the ruins of countries that have been destroyed.”
In his lecture, Dr. Yousef stated that an expansion of the war in Gaza will accelerate the restructuring of the geopolitical makeup of the Middle East. Dr. Yousef discussed the crisis of the regional system of the Middle East and the structure of its states, its geopolitical shields, and its strategic axes, explaining that a return to a unifying national spirit under states with one national identity for all its citizens can resolve the crises of the Middle Eastern states. He asserted that short of this, the region is headed toward the disintegration of some states and the emergence of others after crushing, major wars.
[i] https://en.icgers.com/index.php/2023/10/12/hamas-raids-israel-the-disintegration-of-the-geopolitical-makeup-of-the-middle-east/
[ii] https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/naftali-bennet-says-israel-must-destroy-irans-nuclear-programme-now?nid=394896&topic=Israel%2527s%2520war%2520on%2520Gaza&fid=532396
[iii] https://www.politico.eu/article/benjamin-netanyahu-iran-regime-change-video-israel-hezbollah-war/