Towards a possible fragmentation of the Spanish state
In the 19th century, Germany’s first Chancellor, Otto von Bismarck, declared: “I am firmly convinced that Spain is the strongest country of the world. Century after century trying to destroy herself and still no success”. This observation remains pertinent in contemporary Spanish politics, as the country faces a recurring crisis that, if not addressed, could lead to a possible fragmentation of the Spanish state.
Spain, located on the Iberian Peninsula and bordered by the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Balearic Sea, boasts a rich history. Initially inhabited by the Celts, Iberians, Basques, among others1–3, the region came under Roman control following the Second Punic War4 and remained so for nearly six centuries5. In the fifth century AD, the peninsula fell to Germanic tribes and was eventually unified under Visigothic rule6. This unity persisted until the Muslim conquest, when the Umayyad Caliphate took control of most of the Iberian Peninsula7. Although the Visigothic Kingdom of late antiquity marked the first expression of a unified Iberian Peninsula, the formation of modern Spanish identity began during the Reconquista. Over approximately four centuries, Christian forces reclaimed territories lost to the Umayyads in the eighth century AD5; this period laying the foundation for Spanish statehood, culminating in the union of Ferdinand II of Aragon and Isabella I of Castile in 1469. Their subsequent ascension to their respective thrones in 1474 and 1479 unified the crowns8, forming a single political entity for the first time since the Visigothic era. Los Reyes Católicos (Catholic Monarchs) then undertook a dual strategy of diminishing the power of the bourgeoisie and nobility while also securing their allegiance. Their conquest of Granada in 1492 marked the end of nearly seven centuries of Muslim rule on the Iberian Peninsula5. Bismarck’s observation highlights that, despite nearly four centuries of statehood at the time of his statement, Spanish identity has long struggled with a sense of unity and allegiance to the central state. This issue still persists over 500 years since the formation of the Spanish kingdom, illustrating Spain’s unique situation: an ancient state grappling with issues of loyalty, patriotism, and national identity; while facing ongoing separatist movements and an ongoing national identity crisis. Therefore, it is crucial to address the future trajectory of Spain: Will its statehood falter under the pressure of separatist movements, leading to potential fragmentation, or will the Spanish nation consolidate itself and build a robust sense of national identity, thus preserving the integrity of the Spanish state?
To address this question, it is essential to critically examine the evolution of the Spanish state through the centuries. This analysis will reveal how recurring issues underpin current challenges to Spanish statehood, and assess the impact of contemporary politics, which prioritize globalization over national identity, on Spanish politics and, consequently, on Spanish national identity.
Following the unification of Spain and the discovery of the “New World” by Christopher Columbus in 1492, a voyage funded by Isabella I that led to his arrival in the Caribbean and initiated European exploration of the Americas9, Spain began its ascent as a major global power. The marriage of Isabella I of Castile and Ferdinand II of Aragon, uniting their crowns, laid the foundation for the Spanish Empire and modern Spain. However, the individual “Spanish kingdoms” maintained their distinct social, political, and economic systems, reflecting their unique histories. Languages such as Catalan, Basque, and Galician, with roots extending centuries – millennia in the case of Basque – continue to be spoken today.
Although Spain’s linguistic and cultural diversity – like Switzerland’s multilingualism and decentralized canton system or the United States’ federal structure – does not inherently signal a weak central government or national identity, the country has nonetheless struggled to cultivate a strong sense of national unity and patriotism. This issue can be traced back to the kingdom’s foundation, where the establishment of a robust national sentiment was not prioritized. Instead, the Spanish crown focused on external conquests in Italy and the Americas8,10, with Catholicism serving as the primary unifying force. And although the crown made efforts toward linguistic and religious unification as well as political centralization; a strong national sentiment never fully materialized across the kingdom.
During this period, Spain capitalized on the Age of Discoveries, expanding its empire across vast regions in the Americas, the Indo-Pacific, and Africa, while maintaining a strong presence in Europe5,8. By the 16th century, Spain had emerged as one of the world’s most powerful states, boasting a formidable armada that secured maritime dominance. This supremacy was evidenced by its role in the Holy League’s victory over the Ottomans at the Battle of Lepanto in 157111 and its triumph over Portugal at the Battle of Ponta Delgada in 158212. Spain also engaged in the Anglo-Spanish War of 1585-160413, where several victories reinforced its control over the seas. However, Spain’s power began to wane in the latter half of the 17th century, marked by defeats against the Dutch Republic at the Battle of the Downs in 163914 and England during the Anglo-Spanish War of 1654-166015,16. This decline culminated in the War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714)17, after which Spain lost its status as a global superpower and gradually ceded its American colonies over the following century.
The weakening of the Catholic Church in the 19th century, alongside the rise of socialism and left-wing movements, further undermined Spanish unity, laying the groundwork for the emergence of peripheral nationalism in regions such as Catalonia and the Basque Country. This growing sense of regional identity was marked by the founding of the Basque Nationalist Party in 189518 and the Regionalist League of Catalonia in 190119. Galicia, too, joined the separatist movement in the 20th century, with parties like the Galician Nationalist Bloc and Renewal-Nationalist Brotherhood (Anova)20, although their influence remains limited. This fragmentation reflects a deeper historical pattern: since the Reconquista, various regions within the Iberian Peninsula have continuously asserted their distinctiveness from the broader Spanish identity, often through claims of historical independence and the preservation of minority languages. Meanwhile, the strongest national identity has traditionally been rooted in Castile and Aragon, the heartland of modern Spain.
Although not all peripheral regions exhibit separatist tendencies or disconnect from their Spanish identity, Spain lacks the powerful national sentiment found in countries like Germany, France, the UK, or Switzerland. This deficiency has contributed to ongoing social and political strife throughout the 20th century. The Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) led to General Francisco Franco’s dictatorship, which endured until his death in 197521. During Franco’s regime, separatist movements, particularly in the Basque Country and Catalonia, intensified, persisting into the democratic era. The ETA, a so-called far-left armed separatist organization founded in 1959, conducted campaigns of assassinations, bombings, and kidnappings as part of the Basque conflict22, which lasted until 2011. Catalan pro-independence groups also remained active, with Estat Català’s failed uprising in 192623 and the formation of Terra Lliure in 1978, a Marxist-Leninist paramilitary group responsible for hundreds of attacks24.
Spain’s democratization after Franco’s death culminated in the adoption of a new constitution in 197821, which affirmed the indivisible unity of the Spanish nation while recognizing the right to autonomy for its nationalities and regions, particularly Galicia, Catalonia, and the Basque Country. Although this constitution sought to balance national unity with regional autonomy, similar to the decentralized systems in the US and Switzerland, Spain still struggles with a strong sense of national unity and allegiance necessary for a cohesive state.
Left-leaning politics have long influenced many of Spain’s separatist movements, a trend that became more pronounced after the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) rose to power in 198221. Despite shifts between left- and right-leaning governments since then, separatist tensions, especially in Catalonia and the Basque Country, have persisted. Catalonia, for instance, held a non-binding independence referendum in 2014, though it saw low turnout25. A more contentious referendum followed in 201726 under Carles Puigdemont, which was declared unconstitutional by Madrid, leading to significant clashes with Spanish authorities27. Ultimately, Puigdemont fled to Belgium after Madrid dissolved the Catalan government28.
Following these events, the left returned to power in Spain under Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE following the removal of the previous Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, through a vote of no confidence in 201829. And although the Spanish right narrowly won the 2023 elections30, its failure to form a government allowed Sánchez to retain power31. To consolidate his position, he formed alliances with separatist parties, such as the right-leaning Junts per Catalunya32, mirroring his post-2019 election strategy of partnering with smaller Basque and Catalan separatist groups. This approach was further exemplified by his controversial proposal to grant amnesty to Catalan separatists, igniting nationwide protests33. These political maneuvers risk weakening Madrid’s hold on these regions, potentially emboldening further separatist movements. And while the backlash against Sánchez’s amnesty proposal indicates that patriotism and a sense of belonging to the Spanish nation persist, these sentiments are not universally strong. Indeed, under a left-leaning government that does not prioritize Spanish national unity, and even collaborates with separatists to maintain power, the likelihood of separatist movements gaining momentum increases. This growing divide between central Spain and its regions could, if left unchecked, lead to the fragmentation of Spain into de facto independent states, with Catalonia, the Basque Country, and potentially Galicia separating. In the worst-case scenario, the regions of Valencia and the Balearic Islands could also choose to secede. This potential scenario could have severe repercussions for Spain, with the loss of economically vital regions like Catalonia and the Basque Country dealing a significant blow to Spanish economy; with Catalonia alone contributing 20% of Spain’s GDP in 2023, per Statista34. The ramifications could extend beyond Spain’s borders, potentially destabilizing neighboring France, as both the Basque Country and Catalonia might lay claim to territories within France as part of their newly independent states.
Spain’s historical and ongoing struggle with regional autonomy and national unity has deep roots in its past. While external conquests and religious cohesion once held the kingdom together, the lack of a deeply ingrained national sentiment has left Spain vulnerable to internal divisions. As modern political dynamics continue to empower separatist movements, the challenge of maintaining a unified Spain remains a delicate and unresolved issue.
In conclusion, Spain’s historical complexities and contemporary challenges underscore the fragile nature of its national unity. While the nation has weathered centuries of internal strife and external pressures, the persistent issue of regional separatism continues to threaten its statehood. The failure to cultivate a strong national identity has left Spain vulnerable to fragmentation, as evidenced by the recurring rise of separatist movements in regions like Catalonia and the Basque Country. These movements, fueled by political dynamics that prioritize regional autonomy over national unity, risk further weakening Spain’s cohesion.
However, if Spain is to preserve its statehood, it is imperative to foster a renewed sense of national and patriotic identity, as only through cultivating a deep sense of belonging to the nation can Spain quell separatist sentiments. This endeavor must be balanced with a respect for the unique cultures within its regions, an equilibrium that Spain has struggled to achieve throughout the centuries. Spain’s rich history, from the Reconquista to its global empire, demonstrates its resilience; yet it also highlights the ongoing challenge of maintaining a unified state in the face of diverse regional identities. As Spain moves forward, the path to preserving its integrity lies in addressing these historical shortcomings, ensuring that a unified national identity can coexist with its rich cultural tapestry.
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Annex
A cartographic representation depicting the potential internal fragmentation of Spain within its existing national Boundaries
A cartographic representation delineating the potential fragmentation of Spain, along with the territorial expansion of the emerging Basque and Catalan nations into French territory