Hamas Raids Israel: The Disintegration of the Geopolitical Makeup of the Middle East

It so happened that Hamas’ raid on Israeli cities and towns on October 7 was the day the United States of America launched its war on Afghanistan in 2001 after Al Qaeda’s “invasions of New York and Washington” (as per the Islamist narrative), led by Osama bin Laden on September 11, 2001.

We will inquire into whether the consequences of Hamas’ raid of Israeli cities will match those of “the invasions of New York and Washington.”

What first comes to the mind of political observers as a consequence of Al Qaeda’s attacks on American soil is the United States’ invasion and occupation of Afghanistan for 20 years (2001-2021). Also comes to mind the invasion of Iraq, the ousting of President Saddam Hussein, and the dismantling of the then-ruling Ba’ath Party and the state military, political, and security apparatuses.

Observers miss the fact that the consequences of “the invasions of New York and Washington” had much more profound and broader effects than changing the geopolitical makeup of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Careful inquiry and scrutiny reveal that the geopolitical crises occurring in Northern Africa, the Middle East, and the African Saharan and coastal countries result from the September 2001 Al Qaeda attacks against New York and South Africa. It also resulted in the spread of adversity, destruction, chasms, and bloodshed. It gave rise to economic and social crises and sectarian, ethnic, and tribal strife in Lybia, Tunisia, Yemen, and others since 2011.

Further explanation will elucidate how this causality is not an exaggeration or a misapprehension.

Al Qaeda, led by Osama bin Laden and his second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, took refuge in Afghanistan in the mountains of Tora Bora. There, it established its military encampments, hideouts, and training camps. It encouraged every Salafi Islamist to follow suit and join its ranks.

They remained unharmed until they attacked the U.S. embassies in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, and Dar es Salaam in Tanzania in 1998. U.S. fighter jets then bombed Al Qaeda’s barracks in Afghanistan and the Al-Shifa pharmaceutical factory in Sudan. Washington did not do further than this until Al Qaeda sent its members to attack the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington. Only then did America launch its raging war against Afghanistan on October 7, 2001. It ousted the Taliban government and chased the members and leaders of Al Qaeda who scattered in the East and Central regions of the country. This caused the issue of Arab Afghans, who spread to Iraq, Libya, Algeria, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen.

Abu Mus’ab Al Zarqawi established a military camp for Al Qaeda in the mountains on the Iraqi-Iranian borders in 2002, showing cooperation between him and Jund al Islam (Ansarul Islam later). The United States launched a brutal air campaign against their positions in the mountains in Northern Iraq several days before the start of the war against Iraq on March 21, 2003. Al Mujahideen Shura Council, Hilf Al Mutayyibin, and Ansar al-Sunna were established, after which Tanzim Qaidat al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Rafidayn appeared, who then became the Islamic State in Iraq and finally became the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) after the start of the Syrian crisis. The organization declared the establishment of the Islamic Caliphate in Mosul in 2014 when Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi called upon Muslims to pledge allegiance and obedience to him. Islamic movements and organizations from Tunisia, Libya, Sudan, Nigeria, Mali, the Philippines, Afghanistan, and Somalia all pledged allegiance to him. This led to the spread of strife and wars and the metastasis of geopolitical chaos.

This is a short overview of the historical background, which indicates that the Al Qaeda attacks against Washington and New York in September 2001 resulted in the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq and the spread of Al Qaeda and Islamic groups in Islamic regions in general. It was accompanied by the establishment of Jabhat an-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, Boko Haram, Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen, and Islamic Youth, all of which started wars in Libya, Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, and Sudan. This shows a continuum of geopolitical occurrences evidencing a causal relationship between it and Al Qaeda’s attack in America.

The “New York and Washington invasions” fundamentally changed the geopolitical makeup of the Middle East, Central Asia, Northern Africa, the Sahil, the Sahara, and the Horn of Africa. These consequences occurred, and their results affected most Islamic countries, even though they were not intended by Al Qaeda or the aspiration and resolution of Osama bin Laden when they attacked America. 

Although Al Qaeda destroyed the Twin Towers, thousands of buildings, cities, and towns were decimated in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Somalia, Mali, and Nigeria. And although Al Qaeda killed 3,000 American civilians on September 11, 2001, millions of Muslims in several Islamic countries are still being killed today as a consequence.

Analogously, let us look into the consequences of Hamas’ raids on Israeli towns and cities on the geopolitical makeup of the Middle East.

We will adequately consider all contingencies and possibilities, whether of minor or profound significance.

1. A Brief Overview of the War against the Gaza Strip:

As we mentioned, one hour past Hamas’ raid of Israeli territory, the Israeli army will undoubtedly mobilize sizeable forces to invade Gaza as a result of the atrocities committed by Hamas, from the rift it caused to the aura of Israeli intelligence, security apparatuses, to the damage inflicted on the history of the Israeli army. This rift affecting these institutions is difficult to recover from, except through a major war against the Gaza Strip, and the horrors committed by killing hundreds of civilians, women, children, and the elderly, the beheadings, and the lynchings classically committed by Islamic groups- practices deeply rooted in their history.

            The invasion of the Gaza Strip will consist of the following:

1. The Israeli army will fight Hamas in the streets, alleyways, and houses of Gaza. Hamas prepared tunnels, trenches, traps, and ambushes for Israeli forces. This fighting will lead to the killing of a large number of ground forces on both sides until Hamas has no ammunition left and its supply lines and logistics are cut off. Hamas’ military and political leaders will be killed, it will be eradicated, and its military, organizational, administrative, political, and economic structures will be decimated. This will be accompanied by the fall of countless Palestinian civilians who had no say in Hamas’ invasion of Israel because they will not evacuate the Strip towards Egypt or other destinations.
2. The intensification of the battle in Gaza, without an evacuation of civilians and with Egypt and Arab countries insisting that civilians remain in the Strip, will cause innumerable civilian casualties as a byproduct of battles between the Israeli army and Hamas fighters. It will push Arab countries to impose a resolution similar to the resolution of the Beirut crisis after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 when negotiations with American envoy Philip Habib resulted in the ousting of Fatah and the P.L.O. led by Yasser Arafat from Beirut on a ship to Tunisia. The political branch of Hamas, along with those left of its military branch, will be expelled from Gaza to a location that will be agreed upon. Either way, Hamas will be terminated.
3. International pressures exerted over Egypt will coerce it to open evacuation corridors for Palestinian civilians to Sinai to shelter them and provide a safe area for them, avoiding the afflictions of war. This will affect the battles between the Israeli army and Hamas militants. The latter will lose their human shields, turning full circle on Hamas because of the difference in weapons, ammunition, and logistical support between the warring parties, despite the unwavering will to fight for which Hamas militants are known. However, the Israeli edge in technology and stable logistical support will prevail, eradicating Hamas without mercy after the Israeli army makes sure that no civilians will be harmed – with what that entails internationally. Hamas will be terminated in this case as well.

It is a misconception to think that evacuating Palestinian civilians during the war on Gaza will result in their settlement in Sinai is only a pretext. It is essential to mention that the Gaza Strip was under Egyptian protectorate and sovereignty and a part of Egypt until 1967 and the June defeat. Therefore, this will be a benign return to the historical status quo, and Gaza will become part of Egyptian sovereignty again like it was until 1967. It might benefit the whole region and withdraw the pretense of the need for a major war because of the events in Gaza, especially since Egypt has a long and extensive experience in containing the Muslim Brotherhood. The deposition of President Mohammad Morsi in 2013, coupled with the crackdown on the Rabi’a al ‘Adawiya and the Nahda sit-ins and the killing of thousands of civilians are recent events closely linked to the war the Egyptian army led in Sinai since 2014 to eradicate the Islamic organizations in Sinai and the Western desert as a result of the atrocities the latter inflicted on Egyptian Copts and Muslims alike. Therefore, Egypt is capable of resolving the Hamas conundrum in Gaza.

d-There is the possibility of Hamas maintaining its ability to fight and persevering in fighting the Israeli army without Palestinian civilians leaving the Gaza Strip. The battles might intensify, and the war is prolonged, causing a rise in casualties in both sides’ civilian and military populations. Both warring parties would then lose hope for a decisive end to the war, and there would be international efforts to resolve the crisis diplomatically with a truce agreement. Then, Hamas will declare its victory to the people and thank Iran and its allies in the Axis of Resistance for their – albeit weak – financial and logistical support and their media, political, and popular embrace.

This possibility has geopolitical reverberations reaching the whole region. It will consolidate a precedent that will reoccur later. Other groups and movements will then feel that they can launch raids against Israel, killing military personnel and civilians and capturing them, negotiate with international parties to secure political and security gains from Israel, liberate prisoners in exchange for hostages, end the sanctions on Iran and its allies, decreasing the international demands exerted on the Iranian nuclear program, and demanding the reintegration of Iran and Syria into the global monetary and economic system and their return to the SWIFT system.

Despite its consequent weakness, Hamas will still play an essential role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and its resolution.

The roles of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the U.A.E. will weaken. Iran and its allies will be emboldened to restrict Saudi and Emirati influence and threaten to invade them after having witnessed the success of Hamas’ invasion of Israel, even though the latter is more immune to such events than Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. What can possibly happen, knowing that the number of Ansarullah (Houthis) militants is significantly higher, they are more robust and more experienced in fighting wars since 2006, and they enjoy logistical supply from Iran that they can receive easier than Hamas in Gaza can.

This will consolidate the domination of Iran’s allies in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon over the other parties allied with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the West.

2–The spillover of the war outside of the Gaza Strip:

We previously stated what might happen in the Gaza Strip and its effects on the neighboring region if the fighting remains confined to the Strip without a spillover to adjacent territories. The products and consequences of the war will be limited to the rise of the influence of one axis in the Middle East at the expense of the other, coupled with a change in the geopolitical relations in the region without affecting its geopolitical makeup.

If the war spills over outside of the Gaza Strip, the geopolitical makeup of the Middle East, which appeared as a result of the Sykes-Picot Agreement, the defeat and dissolution of the Ottoman Empire in WWI (1914-1918), the Treaty of Versailles in 1919, and the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923. A new geopolitical configuration never seen before in the world and the region appeared, with geopolitical entities and established countries definitively vanishing from the map while others were partitioned into smaller countries, a change in the international and administrative borders, and the appearance of new countries previously unfamiliar to the region.

Hamas is undoubtedly waiting for a party to intervene and alleviate the bombing of Gaza and war against and against other Palestinian factions that participated in Hamas’ raid on Israel. This will occupy Israel on other fronts, sparing Gaza from being the sole target of Israel.

No front is more likely and at a more convenient proximity to provide Hamas with a lifeline than Hezbollah, despite several threats from the axis opposing Israel: Ansarullah (Houthis) in Yemen and its leader’s outcry to Saudi Arabia to open the borders with Israel, the threat of Hadi Al ‘Amiri, leader of the Badr movement, and the Fatah alliance in Iraq, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, and Iraqi Hezbollah to attack American military bases in Iraq in the event the U.S. enters the war against Gaza following the mobilization of the U.S.S. Gerald Ford and its accompanying fighting squads to the Eastern Mediterranean. All these fronts are operationally far from the battlefield, except for Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is at the Northern border of Israel, and in the event that Syria allows Iraqi Shi’i factions to cross Syrian territories towards the Syrian Golan Heights and to open a war front against Israel there.

Hezbollah entering the war will cause Israel and the United States to declare war against Hezbollah and Lebanon.

Unquestionably, Hezbollah will cause significant civilian and military losses and great destruction to Israeli cities and towns exceeding those of the 2006 war. If Hezbollah decides to let its fighters enter Israeli soil, it will distract Israel and alleviate the attacks against Gaza. However, the ensuing destruction that will be inflicted on Lebanon by the joint Israeli and American bombing will be several times magnified in comparison to that of the 2006 war, so much so that Hezbollah will not be able to rebuild what was destroyed, especially without any financial assistance from Gulf countries this time, with pressure by the U.S. and the disapproval of Sunni populations in these countries.

This will be the second phase of the war after its spread outside of the Gaza Strip.

It is a golden chance for Israel to involve the U.S. in a decisive war during which it will fight against all its enemies simultaneously. For over a decade, Israel could not drag the U.S. into a strike against Iran and its nuclear and missile programs, exterminating its growing military, scientific, and technological capabilities and resources.

If the effects of Hezbollah’s bombing of Israel are significant, and if it seeks a land invasion against Israel, then Israel, and the U.S. will fiercely bomb Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Lattakia, the Syrian Ministry of Defence, the general army command, centers of control and communication, and the presidential palace to compromise the stability of the government in Syria, cutting its lines of communication with its military units at the Northern borders with Idlib, and Northern Aleppo. This will give Jabhat an-Nusra, Ahrar as-Sham, and other armed Syrian opposition factions a historic opportunity they had always sought to incite the U.S. to bomb the Syrian army and command in Damascus, failing to do so since 2011.

At that point, the war will be propelled into its 3^rd phase, with a quantic strategic condition appearing when the U.S. and Israeli airforce will provide air cover for the advance of Jabhat an-Nusra, Al Qaeda, Ahrar as-Sham, and other armed Syrian opposition factions, as though their own airforce is preparing the battlefield of Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Lattakia, and Damascus. This will distract Hezbollah and Iran’s allies in Syria by opening several fronts they cannot secure while at war with Israel. The threat behind them will be greater and more significant than what they have at hand facing them in their fight with Israel. It will be the loss of what was achieved in 10 years of battles by Iran and its allies in Syria.

The U.S. will mobilize the Syrian Democratic Forces, providing it with an air cover to block the land passage between Iraw and Syria and allowing it to seize the area between At-Tanf and Al-Boukamal to cut the Iranian and Iraqi logistics supply chains from Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The weakness and incapacity of Iran’s allies in both countries will become apparent when they fail to halt the attack on Damascus and other cities by the armed Syrian opposition forces, Jabhat an-Nusra, Al Qaeda, and Ahrar as-Sham on the one side, and the continuation of the battles against Israel and the support for Hamas on the other.

This is when the war will enter its 4^th phase. Iran enters the war with all its capacities, its Revolutionary Guard, mobilizing every power or tool available for a decisive war between the warring parties. The American military bases deployed in Bahrain (the headquarters of the Fifth Fleet), Qatar (the headquarters of the Central Command), and the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, as well as Israel, will be bombed with thousands of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. The Iraqi Shi’ite factions allied with Iran will also bomb those bases in Iraq and the Gulf countries. The Ansarullah movement will participate by launching an air, land, and sea military campaign in the Red Sea against the United States’ allies in the region. The Middle East will enter a major, all-encompassing war.

The United States of America will support Iraqi Kurdistan and the Peshmerga forces to enter the war after lifting the borders and reconciling their differences with the Kurdish K.S.D. forces to control Mosul, Kirkuk, and others, and turning a blind eye to the reappearance of ISIS to attack Baghdad and the Shi’ite factions and distract them by waging decisive Sunni-Shiite sectarian wars.

Turkey and Egypt will enter the war in the Middle East during its fifth phase, alongside Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Jordan, and others.

Nuclear Pakistan would be cautious about entering this war because that would require India’s entry alongside Israel and the United States to deter Pakistan from using nuclear weapons to assist Saudi Arabia.

It may be argued that Russia will prevent this in the Middle East so that its efforts and gains in Syria since 2015 will not be in vain. However, we argue that Russia has had its concerns in Ukraine and will be unable to fight a second war in the Middle East. The West will further incapacitate, drain, and exhaust it in Ukraine by providing Kyiv with new, advanced, long-range weapons to divert its attention from the Middle East.

China might take advantage of the United States’ preoccupation with the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to launch its war on Taiwan, invading it with its army and fleet.

Thus, the world has entered an era of conflict in the new historical cycle of the international order, officially ending the previous historical cycle. (See “The Essence of the International Order” for reference)

New global and regional poles appear in the Middle East, Asia, Europe, and Africa. Countries such as Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia will be partitioned and torn apart. Borders will change, and new countries and geopolitical entities will appear on the ruins of countries that have been destroyed. This will be elaborated on in a coming detailed study.

Our preceding statements do not imply that we condone war or support the instigators of battles and strife. Instead, we are warning in advance of the possibility of battles and wars occurring.