Macron’s Remarks on Russia: A late admission of Western failure, against which Dr Youssef had warned
On February 27, as the Russo-Ukrainian war enters its third year, French President Emmanuel Macron, following an international conference in support of Ukraine attended by more than twenty European leaders, declared that “there is no consensus to officially back any ground troops. That said, nothing should be excluded. We will do everything that we can to make sure that Russia does not prevail”i in a belated admission of the failure of European strategies to deal with Russia. The president of ICGER, Dr. Muhammad Walid Youssef, warned in 2016 that a Russian victory would propel Moscow back to its former position as a world pole in the next historical cycle of the international system.
Macron added: “We are convinced that the defeat of Russia is indispensable to security and stability in Europe.” Describing Russia as the ‘sole aggressor’, he said, ‘We are not at war with the Russian people. We just don’t want to let them win’.”ii
In his book “The Essence of the International System,” written in 2016 and published in 2020, Dr. Youssef predicted that “the Russian Federation will reach the position of global pole during the next cycle of the international system, after the next era of conflict, mobilized by the second law of this system (extending influence over the vital horizon), and supported by a military strategy in its strategic space. This second law pushes it to tighten its political influence on its horizon through military campaigns, as since 2008 and its first campaigns, including the invasion of Georgia and the strengthening of its control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia.”
He asserted that “this law will inevitably push it to rise towards the position of global pole because no one can stop a rising power if weak countries are in its vital horizon.”
He added: “If Georgia and Ukraine had been transformed into strong regional powers or been included in the European Union and NATO, these two countries would have left the Russian strategic power sphere because Russia does not consider the European Union or NATO as entities over which it must inevitably extend its hegemony. Since it is impossible for these countries to become great regional powers since they lack the necessary factors and resources, the European Union and NATO will annex Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and even Azerbaijan to prevent Russia from re-assuming the position it occupied during the Soviet Union, contrary German, French, and others refusing the inclusion of these countries in their camp seeing no benefit in doing so other than provoking Russia and reviving its ambition to rise to its former position as a global pole. Leaving Georgia and Ukraine outside the European Union and NATO provides a new historic opportunity for Russia to expand its influence in its vital space, motivated by its desire to annex these nations. The West cannot prevent the consolidation of the position of the Russian Federation as a second global pole without including these countries in its political, military, and economic spheres and in its security agencies to contain Russian ambitions once these countries no longer constitute a zone of strategic interest for Russians having joined Western institutions.”
He considers that “The European and American delay in making this decision, as well as the German-French reluctance, will inevitably result in the restoration of the global position of Russia as an international pole as it was during the Soviet era in accordance with the second law of the international system.”
He stressed that “the second law of the global order compels the West to include Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine in its institutions if it wants to prevent Russia from achieving the status it enjoyed during the era of Soviet Union, not the other way around. The West’s delay in annexing these countries to its institutions, hoping to appease Russia and contain its ambitions, will be the main factor pushing Russia to realize these ambitions according to the second law. If the West fails to include these countries and continues to ignore the laws of the international system, it will affect Russia and push it to restore its Soviet-era position in the world, contrary to the West’s goals.”