Dr. Youssef’s Early Warning Materializes: Europe Left to Shoulder Ukraine’s Armament Costs
Recent statements by former U.S. President Donald Trump and several European leaders have confirmed predictions made by Dr. Mohammad Walid Youssef, head of ICGER, regarding growing rifts within the NATO alliance over the war in Ukraine. These predictions were detailed in the Center’s 2024 Annual Geopolitical Report, released on February 21, 2025.
In a televised phone interview with NBC on July 11, 2025, Trump declared, “We’re sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for those weapons, a hundred percent[…]”[i]
Just one day prior, on July 10, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced during the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in Rome that Germany is prepared to purchase U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems for delivery to Ukraine.[ii]
French President Emmanuel Macron echoed similar sentiments on July 14, stating: “To be free in this world, you must be feared. To be feared, you must be powerful[…].” Macron has outlined plans for a big increase in defence spending, warning Europe’s liberty is facing a “greater threat” than at any time since the end of World War II. Referencing the threat from Russia, he denounced “imperialist policies” and “annexing powers.” He also referenced the U.S. bombing of Iran, fighting between India and Pakistan, and what he called the “ups and downs in American support for Ukraine”.[iii]
These remarks and policy shifts reinforce Dr. Youssef’s earlier analysis in the 2024 Annual Report, in which he forecast “severe turbulence within the European Union driven by multiple compounding factors.”
Dr. Youssef noted that among these drivers was “the pressure of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which the Trump administration seeks to de-escalate in a manner unsatisfactory to both Ukraine and its European partners.” He further warned that the growing transatlantic divide over the terms for ending the conflict would prevent NATO allies from reaching a unified position, “undermining U.S. efforts and forcing Europe to bear the burden of supporting Ukraine militarily and financially—including purchasing, producing, and supplying weapons and ammunition to replace depleted stockpiles.”
[i] https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/10/politics/us-weapons-ukraine-nato-deal-trump
[ii] https://www.dw.com/en/germany-pledges-patriot-air-defense-for-ukraine/a-73233988
[iii] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdez5e212dzo