NATO: Rifts Between the Two Sides of the Pond
The initial signs of the scenario outlined by Dr. Youssef, President of, in the 2024 annual geopolitical report regarding the challenges facing Europe in 2025, are beginning to materialize—particularly concerning the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Europe is compelled to bear the burden of supporting Ukraine, especially after the emergence of disagreements within NATO, particularly between the United States and Europe.
In his analysis of the anticipated events in Europe in 2025, published on February 21, 2024, Dr. Youssef stated, “[…] extreme chaos is sweeping through the European Union, driven by several factors.”
He pointed out that one of these factors is the pressure U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration will apply. The administration “seeks to end the conflict in a way that does not satisfy Ukraine and European countries. This divergence will create disagreements across the Atlantic regarding the conditions for ending the war, preventing both sides from reaching a consensus. This frustration with U.S. efforts will force Europe to bear the burden of supporting Ukraine through financial aid, purchasing weapons and ammunition, and boosting production to replenish stockpiles and supply Ukraine.”
No U.S. Guarantees – Europe Responds
On February 26, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that Ukraine should “forget” its aspirations to join NATO. “NATO – you can forget about,” Trump said. “I think that’s probably the reason the whole thing started.” Trump ruled out the United States providing more formal security guarantees, as sought by Kyiv. “I’m not going to make security guarantees beyond very much,” Trump said. “We’re going to have Europe do that. Europe is their next-door neighbor, but we’re going to make sure everything goes well.”[i]
In contrast, official European statements and press reports indicate that European countries—especially Germany and France—are attempting to respond to these looming challenges amid declining U.S. support for Ukraine and the possibility of Washington failing to uphold its NATO commitments.
“We must prepare for the possibility that Donald Trump will no longer uphold NATO’s mutual defense commitment unconditionally,” Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s conservative party and a potential future chancellor, said in an interview with German broadcaster ZDF. “That is why, in my view, it is crucial that Europeans make the greatest possible efforts to ensure that we are at least capable of defending the European continent on our own.” In this context, Merz pledged to hold talks with France and the United Kingdom about expanding their nuclear umbrella to include Germany. “We need to have discussions with both the British and the French — the two European nuclear powers — about whether nuclear sharing or at least nuclear security from the U.K. and France, could also apply to us,” Merz said. He urged Europe to “do everything possible now to be able to defend the European continent independently,”[ii]
France’s Nuclear Readiness
In a related development, The Telegraph revealed that France expressed readiness to use its nuclear power to help protect Europe.[iii] The report indicated that French nuclear-armed fighter jets could be deployed in Germany as part of plans to enhance European security amid increasing threats from Washington to withdraw its forces from Europe.
A French official told The Telegraph that deploying fighter jets would send a message to Vladimir Putin, while diplomats in Berlin suggested it would pressure Sir Keir Starmer to do the same. Speaking alongside Mr Trump at the podium, Mr Macron said peace “must not be a surrender of Ukraine” as he also called on Europeans to do more to protect the Continent. Mr. Macron has been pushing Europe to hold a debate on the role that French nuclear weapons can play in the Continent’s defense.
The Normalization of Nuclear Weapons Use
On the Russian side, Moscow warned that the risk of direct military confrontation between nuclear-armed states is extremely high.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin stated during the High-Level Segment of the Disarmament Conference on February 26, 2024, that the risk of direct military confrontation between nuclear powers is alarmingly high, noting that the situation is deteriorating at a very concerning pace.
Vershinin said: “We are approaching the 80th anniversary of the UN amid a severe crisis in the field of international security. The situation is deteriorating at a dramatic rate, and the risk of direct military confrontation of nuclear powers is high. There is widespread growth of tensions and conflicts.”[iv]
These statements and preparations affirm what Dr. Youssef pointed out regarding the consequences of Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine in an article published on November 20, 2024, titled “Putin Ushers in a New Nuclear Age.” In it, he discussed how one of the most dangerous consequences of the modified Russian nuclear doctrine is the “normalization of using nuclear weapons in wars.”
Dr. Youssef added: “The implications of Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine are profound and far-reaching, particularly its potential to normalize the use of nuclear weapons in warfare. Should this occur, nuclear-armed states might increasingly view their arsenals as viable options in conflicts, lowering the nuclear threshold and rendering nuclear weapons comparable to conventional arms.”
He continued: “Furthermore, such developments could trigger a global arms race, with non-nuclear states seeking to acquire nuclear weapons by any means necessary. This proliferation would fundamentally undermine the objectives of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) of 1968 and its subsequent protocols, stripping them of their significance.”
[i] https://www.lemonde.fr/en/united-states/article/2025/02/26/trump-says-no-security-promises-or-nato-for-ukraine_6738609_133.html
[ii] https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-nuclear-weapons-nato-donald-trump-vladimir-putin-friedrich-merz/
[iii] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/02/24/france-to-offer-nuclear-shield-for-europe/
[iv] https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/2000358/