Turmoil in Syria – Echoes from the ICGER 2024 Report
The recent events in Syria’s coastal region—clashes, ambushes, and the killing of Alawite civilians by the new ruling authority—coincide with what the head of ICGER, Dr. Youssef, wrote in the center’s annual geopolitical report for 2024, published on February 21, 2025.
On Saturday, March 8, 2025, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that more than 1,000 people had been killed in ongoing clashes over the past two days in the coastal regions inhabited by Syria’s Alawite community. Among the dead were 745 civilians, 125 Syrian security personnel, and 148 fighters loyal to former President Bashar al-Assad.[i]
The Observatory’s director, Rami Abdul Rahman, described the large-scale killings in Alawite-populated areas as the worst violence in years in Syria’s 13-year-long civil war. He spoke of “sectarian and regional-based executions,” “field executions,” and “widespread looting of homes and properties.”
Dr. Youssef’s Analysis
In his 2025 analysis of Syria, published in the annual geopolitical report, Dr. Youssef predicted:
“The ruling authority will struggle to unify the country, hampered by its inability to address the political, administrative, and economic demands of key factions, including the Druze, Kurds, Alawites, and Christians. Under pressure from Turkey and influenced by internal hardline factions that view confrontation with these groups as both a religious obligation and a means of securing financial resources amid dwindling international aid, the government will be drawn into renewed conflicts.
This instability follows the failure of the National Dialogue Conference, which will be largely controlled by Sunni Arab factions, with only superficial participation from other groups (Kurds, Druze, Alawites, and Christians) designed to appease Western powers. However, frustration will mount as the Turkish-backed ruling authority consolidates power without genuinely integrating these factions, further exacerbating tensions.”
[i] https://www.dw.com/ar/%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%B9%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D8%AD%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%AF%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%88%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%AD%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A/a-71871499