Rising Tensions in Syria: A Complex Web of Alliances and Threats
This past week, a significant offensive against Aleppo, Syria, escalated as 15 factions, alongside the notorious Al-Nusra terrorist group, launched coordinated attacks. The assault, led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, formerly aligned with figures such as, Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi, and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi marks a disturbing turn in the ongoing conflict. Turkish President Erdogan appears to be maneuvering to position al-Julani as a key player in the future of Syria and potentially the broader Middle East. This strategy includes rebranding al-Nusra as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and presenting the Syrian National Army (SNA) as a more moderate and palatable force, distancing them from their extremist past, and feigning a break with the Nusra ideology.
The intensification of the offensive can be traced to several key factors.
First, Russia’s involvement in Ukraine has led to a significant reduction of military assets in Syria, including the withdrawal of Sukhoi jet fighters and almost all ammunition. This left the Syrian Army vulnerable, as only one Su-24 aircraft remained to respond to the Syrian Army’s request for backup. It took over 72 hours for additional supplies to arrive aboard Ilyushin and Tupolev aircraft and for the air campaign to resume. By then, the terrorist factions had already reached the outskirts of Hama.
The second factor is the grave strategic blunder committed by Iran and Hezbollah when starting a supposed war of attrition against Israel to support Hamas, which led to the draining of their military capabilities, ultimately achieving the opposite results. The axis had to pull thousands of fighters from the Aleppo area, most of whom passed away in the Southern Lebanon war. These fighters and their commanders had amassed 10 years of experience fighting the Turkish-backed terrorist groups on Syrian terrain, and their absence gave a great advantage to Turkey, whose army and intelligence services were waiting to pounce on the opportunity: only Al-Nusra Front took off from Idlib, while the other 15 terrorist factions were released onto Syrian territory from Turkey, trained and armed by the Turkish Army and Turkish intelligence.
A third, lesser factor has been the role of Ukrainian intelligence services, which have reportedly aided the terrorist factions by supplying electromagnetic devices that disrupt Syrian military communications and radar systems. This interference has further impeded the Syrian Army’s ability to respond effectively. They have also provided them with UAVs that ensured air cover as the terrorist militants marched on.
The Role of Russia and Iran
Russia’s involvement in Syria is viewed as a critical piece of Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical strategy. With the war in Ukraine ongoing, Putin may see Syria as an opportunity to score a much-needed strategic win and restore some of Russia’s tarnished international stature.
For this, Iran and Russia will seek the deployment of tens of thousands of Shi’a fighters, including Iran’s Popular Mobilization Forces and the Houthis, which could set the stage for a Sunni-Shi’a confrontation of epic proportions.
The implications of using tactical nuclear warheads in Ukraine to end the battle there are very difficult for Putin to shoulder since it is on European soil and against Europeans. However, using these in Idlib or Aleppo, and especially against internationally recognized terrorist organizations, gives this use more legitimacy. Such a move could provoke less international backlash than using these weapons in Ukraine, where their use would risk escalating tensions with the US and European countries.
Turkey’s Role and the Path to Sectarian Expansion
The unfolding events in Syria also highlight Turkey’s pivotal role in shaping the region’s future. Erdogan has long sought to revive the Seljuk-Ottoman Empire, and his involvement in the Syrian conflict is part of a broader expansionist agenda. It is no exaggeration to say that Erdogan unleashed a chain reaction of terrorism in the region to achieve this goal.
For the first time in the history of conflicts with Islamic terrorist groups, the attack did not take a guerilla warfare form. Instead, they attacked in a standard army battle formation with military vehicles, infantry, and air cover by Ukrainian-supplied drones.
The Turkish-Ukrainian collusion aims to distract Russia from its advancement in Eastern Ukraine, and the air cover for the terrorist groups is prohibiting Sukhoi jet fighters from halting the attack.
A possible fall of Hama means the imminent fall of Damascus in the hands of the Turkish-backed terrorist militants. The 10 to 15 thousand terrorist militants were prevented from capturing Hama this past weekend by a fierce Christian and Alawite resistance, in which civilians fought the advancing forces.
The fall of each additional Sunni city means thousands more Sunni militants with similar views joining the ranks of the terrorist groups. Between 50 and 100 thousand militants have joined in Aleppo currently, and the possible capture of Homs, Hama, and others means that the number of attackers when on the outskirts of Damascus may reach a million.
Had Hama been captured on Saturday, November 30th, thousands would have automatically seized Homs and been on their way to Damascus, then to Akkar and Tripoli in Northern Lebanon. Beirut could have been under siege as these lines were being written.
The West’s Inaction and Global Implications
As the situation intensifies, the response from the West, particularly the United States in its lame duck period, has been largely passive. The West, as well as Israel, are underestimating the severity of the danger that these terrorist groups pose to their interests and security, which far exceeds that of Iran and its arms in the region.
Aleppo, a key city historically known as a strategic gateway, has been the focus of numerous military campaigns throughout history, from Hulagu to Timur Lang. Those who control Aleppo often go on to seize control of larger swaths of the region, from Damascus to Cairo.
The hordes of terrorist attackers will grow in numbers with every fallen Sunni city, ISIS will be revitalized and encouraged to retake Iraq, and the Muslim Brotherhood will also mobilize in Jordan. Should these groups succeed in capturing key areas, and ultimately the Gulf countries, they would become a formidable force, controlling oil fields and potentially seizing critical military assets like F-15, Rafale, and Mirage jet fighters, THAAD and Patriot missile defense systems, and much more.
The naïve and rather narrow views of Western analysts who see these factions as possibly “autonomous,” or that Erdogan’s military campaign’s goal is to secure the return of Syrian refugees, detract from the catastrophic consequences of the West’s inaction. Erdogan’s ambitions for regional dominance and the resurgence of Sunni extremism will have dire consequences for Europe. If unchecked, the situation in Syria could become a catalyst for broader instability in the Middle East and beyond. The Turks might besiege Vienna once more and occupy Europe using these extremist militants.
Conclusion: A Call for Action
Many have been sounding the alarm to avert the threat posed by Iran and its Shi‘a allies to the region’s security and stability. However, the Turkish threat, with Erdogan at its helm and aided by the extremist Sunni militant movements he controls, is far more dangerous to the stability of the regional and international orders.
The need for an international coalition to confront the escalating threat has never been more urgent. It is the only remaining option to halt this chain reaction of terrorism and prevent the destabilization of Syria and the broader Middle East. There must be a repeat of the 2014 Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, but far more potent. Without swift action, the international political order is teetering on the edge of collapse.