Putin Sobering Up: High Hopes for a Partnership with Erdogan Dissipating
It appears as though Russian President Vladimir Putin is realizing the unfoundedness of his partnership and cooperation with Turkish President Recep Erdogan. He expressed his worries regarding this unstable relationship with Turkey. He indicated recently that the Turkish bias toward Western institutions and the cooperation between Turkey and Ukraine on several issues might negatively affect bilateral Turkish-Russian relations.
This realization might be coming too late strategically, as Dr. Yousef of ICGER – Beirut described in “Wagner: A Prong of the Trifurcate Russian Strategic Failure (Part II)” (published July 10, 2023): “The fundamental characteristic of Russian strategy during Putin’s rule is hesitation and waiting until it is too late for its interests and at a loss of time. This tendency will lead to the waste of its strategic endeavors.”
In this study, Dr. Yousef warned back then of the “delusions of a Russian-Turkish partnership” and of Erdogan abandoning his allies in the West and leaving NATO to join the Eurasian Union headed by Russia.
Putin said, “It seems to me that recently, the economy management of the Turkish government has focused on obtaining loans, investments and grants from Western financial institutions. […] This is probably not a bad thing. But if it’s related to the restriction of trade and economic relations with Russia, then the Turkish economy will lose more than it gains. I think there is such a threat,” Putin told Anadolu,”i also referencing Ankara’s cooperation with Kyiv over some matters.ii
Dr. Yousef stated that Moscow generously gave Erdogan unjustified strategic advantages that allowed Erdogan to achieve strategic and geostrategic objectives and gains and that Turkey will be a source of adversity for Russia in the event that the latter loses in Ukraine and chaos spreads internally.
He pointed out that: “Putin opened for Erdogan doors that were shut by his Western allies and supported him after his NATO allies let him down in an incredible Russian strategy.”
He clarified that “Turkish Baykdar, the designer and manufacturer of the Bayraktar unmanned aerial vehicle, concluded many deals to sell tens of BT2 unmanned combat aerial vehicles to Ukraine before and during Russia’s war against Ukraine. These UAVs destroyed the string of Russian tanks coming in from Belarus in March 2022 that had arrived in the surroundings of Kyiv, which forced the Russians to retreat at the beginning of April 2022. This retreat constituted the start of the Russian strategic defeat in Ukraine. […] Putin is still presenting Turkey and Erdogan with real geopolitical gains in the hope of realizing the illusion that Turkey would withdraw from NATO, sowing discord and animosity among its members. However, what is clear is that Erdogan is now more attached to NATO than ever before, having witnessed the strategic benefits of being a member after the Russian-Ukrainian war and Finland’s and Sweden’s attempts to join after 200 years of strategic neutrality.
In the coming years and decades, Turkey’s elevation to a regional pole by Putin’s unsound strategy will prove disastrous to Russia. If Russia loses the war and political chaos spreads, Russian republics will start seeking independence from the center in Moscow. Turkey will likely incite Muslims in the Ural, Northern Caucasus, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, and Ingushetia to separate from Russia and become independent states.”
i https://nordicmonitor.com/2024/06/putin-warns-erdogan-against-disrupting-profitable-trade-relationssays-turkey-will-lose/
ii https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20240608-how-turkey-s-support-for-ukraine-is-adouble-edged-sword-russia