Niger: The Imminent Disintegration of Artificial Geopolitical Entities
In the wake of the era of colonialism and foreign mandates in the second half of the 20th century, the French and the British left overseas colonies that became independent, self-standing states after they departed. However, when examining these states’ realities, it becomes evident that they are artificial geopolitical entities that have risen in the 19th and 20th centuries, driven only by Western colonial empires’ geopolitical, economic, and strategic interests. Colonial powers annexed incompatible territories inhabited by incompatible ethnicities, clashing religions, irreconcilable sects, and enemy tribes forcibly joined and coercively organized into geopolitical entities, regardless of the interests and objectives of these nations, ethnicities, denominations, and beliefs, and ignoring their opinions and desire to merge into one country and live together in one geopolitical entity.
Colonizing powers have introduced institutions, structures, bureaucracies, and some of their constitutional customs that emerged along the formation of their modern states into the colonies to conceal their colonial failures and geopolitical pitfalls. This made it appear as though these colonies became modern states under colonialism and foreign mandates by merely organizing parliamentary, presidential, and mayoral elections.
Political facts in these colony-states remained in order as long as colonization and mandates persisted. These territories, nations, denominations, and tribes coexisted for as long as foreign mandates governed, ruled, and resolved matters between them in the event of disputes and conflict.
The British Empire achieved this in India, Iraq, Egypt, Sudan, Nigeria, South Africa, and other countries. It organized Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, the provinces of Bangladesh, Sindh, Punjab, Kashmir, and Belush, with Indian provinces into one great country. It imposed on India a parliamentary system with secular constitutional democratic customs and traditions. India then appeared to be a modern state under British rule until 1947.
In Iraq, the British organized Arabs, Kurds, Assyrians, Chaldeans, and Turkmen. It reconciled Shi’a, Sunnis, Christians, Sabeans, Yezidis, Shabak, and Kaka’is, and annexed the Southern, Central, and Northern regions into one geopolitical entity.
In Nigeria, the British grouped the Hausas, Fulanis, Kanuris, and Ebos and organized Muslims, Christians, and Animists, annexing the Northern, Southern, and Western regions into one geopolitical entity. (We have addressed the issue of Sudan here https://icgeren.com/articles/f/the-disintegration-of-sudan )
The British Empire bestowed upon its colonies federalist political systems and customs in governance and economics similar to Great Britain’s.
The French did the same in Mali, Chad, Niger, Morocco, Algeria, Cameroun, Burkina Faso, the DRC, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos.
The French colonial powers united Arabs, Amazighs, the Sahara, and the coast regions in Algeria and Morocco. They reconciled Sunnis, Khawarij, Beidanes, and Mozabite, grouping Arabs with Africans in Mauritania. They organized warring tribes in Chad, Mali, and Niger in a string of neighboring countries.
Colonial empires followed this policy of establishing strategic entities that preserved their vital interests, geopolitical objectives, and the raw materials and primary resources needed for their industries and protected open markets to the flow of their commodities. This was done at the expense of the rights of nations and ethnicities, the interests of denominations and regions, the grievances of many religions, and the domination of certain tribes over others.
For several reasons that I will omit here for brevity, colonies remained functional under foreign mandates and colonialism. At the end of the era of colonization in the second half of the 20th century, colonized populations sought independence. They demanded national rule, after which these states realized they were artificial geopolitical entities not rooted in reality. The end of colonization meant that crises emerged, ethnoreligious strifes expanded, and interreligious wars threatened the very existence of these entities and countries.
Niger is not a unique case among other colonies. Its situation is similar to that of Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and other previously mentioned countries: an artificial geopolitical entity serving the now extinct historical and colonial objectives, and now necessarily disappearing with the disappearance of its raison d’être.
France, since its inception, has been a highly centralized state where the center controls and dominates over the margins. French colonized were constructed according to the same model. Previous French colonies turned into centralized states where power, general governance, and authority were all in the hands of the center of each state, leaving the margins disenfranchised.
This modality of state-building led many regions, nations, and religions to rebel, go to war with the center, and undermine the state’s undergirding because of its weakness and artificiality.
Niger is one of many such countries that are witnessing existential crises or will witness them in the future.
More than 200 coups d’états since 1960, in addition to wars, revolts, and strifes driven mainly by local ethnic, religious, or tribal factors.
The Facts:
General Abdourahmane Tiany, the commander of the presidential guard in Niger, deposed president-elect Mohamed Bazoum on July 26th, 2023, sequestering him and his family inside the presidential palace. He shut down government institutions and closed off the borders of Niger with its neighboring countries. He announced the formation of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland, assuring that Niger will remain committed to its national and international agreements. Additionally, he pledged to protect the rights of citizens and inhabitants and to safeguard the security and dignity of the president and his family.
Simultaneously, demonstrations erupted in Niamey in support of President Bazoum, demanding his return to its presidential term. In turn, the National Council pushed its supporters onto the streets supporting the coup and threatening to burn down the French Embassy. This compelled President Emmanuel Macron to threaten retaliation against any party attacking French expats and to start the evacuation of French nationals from the capital Niamey.
The United States called for the reversal of the coup and the return of President Bazoum to resume his constitutional presidential term.
The European Union appealed for the return of the legitimate rule authority and the governance of public institutions, threatening to impose sanctions on the coup forces.
The Economic Community of Western African States (ECOWAS – 16 countries) gave the coup forces a deadline of one week to reinstate the constitutional authority of Mohamed Bazoum. They threatened military intervention if necessary, and ECOWAS military commanders met to prepare for a military campaign against Niger.
Meanwhile, China did not react despite the presence of many Chinese companies and investments in Niger.
Russia showed caution in dealing with the emergency in Niger, with some analysts accusing it of colluding with the presidential guard over the military coup. Analysts also pointed to the financial support that the Wagner Group, under the command of Ivan Alexandrovitch Maslov, provided to the military coup in Mali.
As for Turkey, it mildly asked for the return of elected President Mohamed Bazoum, unlike its usual firm denouncements of military coups out of the historical fear of Turkish governments of military coups against them by the Turkish Army.
Iran ignored the coup.
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea (Conakry) threatened to declare war against the ECOWAS alliance if the latter invaded Niger.
Algeria and other African countries remained neutral, neither condemning nor supporting the coup. They warned against resorting to military force to solve the Niger crisis, with Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune refusing military intervention to deal with the nascent crisis.
Consequences and Results:
Colonel Paul Henri Damiba led a coup against Burkina Faso’s President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré in September 2021. In Mali, deputy commander-in-chief of the army, Colonel Assimi Goita, deposed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita in August 2020. Colonel Mamady Doumbouya deposed President Alpha Condé in Guinea Conakry in October, 2021. Neither the African Union nor the West engaged militarily to stop the coup movements. They did not wage war against them, nor did they mobilize the world to act or invade them. Suspending the membership of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea was a sufficient response for ECOWAS, who barely imposed any sanctions on these countries without any military action. Mali captured 50 Ivory Coast soldiers accusing them of being mercenaries in August 2022 and held them captive for five months, releasing them in December 2022 after efforts by the African Union. Mali did not fear the consequences, and the West sufficed itself with suspending aid and loans planned to be dispensed to these states. The United States held off 750 million US$ intended for Sudan after General Burhan’s coup against Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.
Mahamat Idriss Déby succeeded his father, Idriss Déby, to the presidency of Chad in August 2021 after his father’s death during the war against the Chadian opposition in April 2021. Neither the African Union nor the West denounced this event. Instead, France supported and cooperated with him to reinforce the undergirds of his rule.
Therefore, it is utmost perplexing why ECOWAS, and the West behind it, held off military action against these other nations while insisting on intervention in Niger to defeat the coup there.
The interests of France, the United States, Italy, and Turkey are contradictory in Niger, in addition to being contradictory to those of China, Russia, Algeria, and Iran.
France is pushing ECOWAS to intervene militarily in Niamey to reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum, driven by the need to protect its economic interests in Niger. Niger produces 4% of the world’s uranium and is a principal source of uranium needed to run nuclear power plants in France and Europe.
Niger is the last military landing and sphere of influence for France in the Sahel and the Sahara following the Burkhan military operation and its troops’ retreat from Mali and Burkina Faso, sequestering them in a military base in Niger since the summer of 2022. If Niger forces France off of its soil, French military influence will disappear from all of its previous colonies, eclipsing the economic pretext for France managing and printing the CFA. Italian Finance Minister and leader of the 5 Star Movement, a partner in the Italian government coalition, Luigi Di Maio, proposed imposing sanctions on all nations that do not exit Africa and end their colonization. France uses the CFA to finance its external debt. Without its African colonies, France’s top economy would rank 15th among world economies. Consequently, France is adamant about reversing the coup in Niger and to reinstate its ally Mohamed Bazoum to the presidency.
Italy’s interests in Niger consist of stopping the influx of the waves of refugees through North Africa and the Mediterranean. Therefore, Italy is wary of a military campaign against Niamey that might lead to political strife and the disintegration of the state, causing the influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees from the Sahara region to Italy. African refugees drained the Giorgia Meloni government, causing great confusion about tackling this crisis. Italy called for a summit in which many European and African countries participated in July 2023 to contain this crisis.
Thus, Italy’s interests clash with the French interests in Niger, Libya, Mali, and the rest of the African continent.
The United States has geostrategic and geopolitical interests in Niger, some of which meet French interests and others in conflict with them.
The US is concerned with containing the influence of the Russian Wagner Group in Mali, the Central African Republic, Libya, and others by imposing sanctions on those cooperating with it.
The United States is also seeking to limit Chinese influence through a long-term strategy of investments able to compete with Chinese interests to incite African countries to divest from China.
This effort coincides with France’s interest in this instance, but it contradicts French interests in that US companies seek to fill any void the French leave behind them in Africa.
Turkish interests clash with French, American, and Italian interests in Niger. Turkey is assiduous in its efforts to maintain stability in Libya, Turkey’s ally. A military campaign in Niger would threaten Libya’s stability in the event of a spillover of the violence into Libya: both countries are home to several ethnicities and nations, including Arabs, Africans, Amazigh, and Touaregs. President Bazoum belongs to the Sons of Suleiman Arab tribe, which spreads over Libya, Chad, and Niger. On the other hand, General Abdourahmane Tiany, leader of the coup, is African from Filingué in the Tillabéri desert, to the East of Niamey. Between these two tribes, there are raids, blood, vendettas, and invasions.
Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, and Morocco also have clashing interests in Niger. They cannot agree on whether to stand up to the coup or remain neutral. The Sudanese Army fears that chaos in Niger opens a new pathway for weapons and volunteers for the Rapid Support Forces in its war against the Army.
Russia is tasked with controlling uranium sources in Niger. It is in its interest to prohibit Europe from seizing uranium as a means of pressure, increasing its need for Russian nuclear fuel that American and European power plants still import from Russia. Despite the war on Ukraine and the Western sanctions, Europe and the United States still import nuclear fuel from Russia’s Rosatom, which produces 50% of the world’s nuclear fuel.
Russia is galvanizing and inciting African countries to oppose Europe. It is also stimulating waves of refugees toward Europe through the Mediterranean to effectuate a geostrategic change allowing right-wing and nationalist parties to seize power through parliamentary elections. These parties desire good relations with Russia, reconciliation, and stopping military support for Ukraine. The odds of these parties winning elections increase the more refugees and immigrants enter their countries. This also jeopardizes the existence of the European Union, given that these parties favor strong state, national, and ethnic identities and refuse a generic European identity.
Russia would have come closer to its goal of dismantling the European Union and causing discord in NATO had it held off its offensive against Ukraine. France, the United States, Italy, Britain, and Turkey have clashing interests in Libya, and the founding of the AUKUS alliance at the end of 2021 between the United States, Britain, and Australia that caused the 50bnUS$ submarine deal crisis with France could have facilitated Russia’s objective.
The clash between the interests of said countries in Africa would have deepened the rift between them beyond any repair, giving Russia enough ammunition to destroy NATO. Instead, Putin’s unsuccessful strategies with Turkey, Europe, and Ukraine failed Russia’s greater interests.
ECOWAS, and France and the US behind it, are between two possibilities:
Either abstaining from deterring the coup in Niger, risking a rerun of the previous coups since 2020, whereby any officer who has eyes set on power will collude with fellow officers to pounce to seize power, declare a state of emergency, suspend the constitution, ban political parties, and shut down institutions in neighboring countries such as Cameroun, the Republic of Central Africa, Mozambique, and others. This will be coupled with diminishing Western influence because of the fall of democratic systems and the spread of Russian and Chinese influence.
The other possibility is for ECOWAS armies, with air support from France and Africom, to launch a ground military campaign against Niamey, Niger’s capital, and reinstate Mohamad Bazoum’s presidency. The risk accompanying such a decision is the eruption of civil wars between Arabs and Africans, Muslims and Christians. If the forces of Burkina Faso and Mali fight along Niger’s army, supported by Wagner, against ECOWAS forces, the risk becomes a war between the Masalit, Azawaghs, Hausa, Dinka, Fulani, Malwal, and Dibo.
If African armies fail to promptly resolve the crisis, and the country is divided between President Bazoum and his supporters from ECOWAS, and General Abdourahmane Tianey and the army of Niger and his supporters (Mali, Algeria, Burkina Faso, and Russian Wagner), Niger will become another battlefield, like Mali, Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Chad. It will be a war-ridden vast region without international borders or national governments, a haven for Islamic movements, organized crime, traffickers, and refugees, with crises spilling over to the rest of Africa, Europe, and the world.
Colonial powers are getting a taste of their own medicine and witnessing the failure of their strategies that, according to their interests, randomly gathered regions, religions, nations, ethnicities, and denominations in artificial geopolitical entities, so-called “states.” The longevity of these states is secure only as long as they remain under colonial rule. As soon as colonial rule left, the flaws of these entities became apparent, revealing existential crises affecting all its inhabitants, as well as its Western colonial creators.
Thus, artificial geopolitical entities in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East will necessarily disintegrate, similar to other artificial entities like the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia. Like the creators of these entities experienced the consequences of their disintegration, Western European powers will be drained by the disintegration of the geopolitical entities they created against the will of their nations and their peoples. Get a taste of your own medicine.
